AUD/USD is testing the YTD high and the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 0.7315/30. A break above here would end Credit Suisse’s medium-term negative view and turn the risks higher.

Break below 0.7245/36 to open the door for further falls

“We remain with our view that 0.7315/30 is likely to hold the recovery and hence we look for a turn back lower from here, with support seen at 0.7274 and then at this week’s lows at 0.7245/36, a close below which is required to prevent further upside. A break below here would then open the door to for a fall back to the 55-DMA at 0.7184, which would bring AUDUSD back in the middle of the recent range.”

“Only a sustained break above 0.7315/30 would refute the medium-term downtrend and lead us to change our currently neutral position, with resistance seen at 0.7367, then 0.7422/31.”