Despite this year's gains, economists at UBS think the rally in commodity prices has further to run. Subsequently, they have raised their Brent Crude Oil forecasts to $125 for June from $95.

Disrupted Russian exports will likely, with a delay, trigger production shut-ins

“Russian energy exports are, at present, exempt from global sanctions, but exports have nevertheless been disrupted. This is the result of self-sanctioning by Russian crude buyers in fear of future sanctions or for reputational reasons. Given limited Russian storage capacity, these disruptions will likely, with a delay, also trigger production shut-ins.” 

“With Russian oil exports and production in the process of being disrupted, we are lifting our Brent crude forecasts to $125/bbl for June, $115/bbl for September, and $105/bbl for December and March 2023 (previously $95, 95, 100, 100/bbl).”