Economists at Commerzbank expect the EUR/PLN pair to drift slightly lower to the 4.70 level during 2022. In 2023, the pair is likely to begin to trend down towards 4.65.

EUR/PLN to trade sideways from here

“Our base-case is that EUR/PLN will trade sideways at around the 4.70 level through to year-end. Even if the military situation were to calm down, monetary tightening by the Fed and ECB will leave its mark on EM assets, which will prevent a noticeable recovery of the zloty.”

“In 2023, we see EUR/PLN gravitate towards the 4.65 level assuming that the worst of the inflation cycle will come into view by then.”