Thursday’s Swiss National Bank (SNB) meeting could potentially result in some changes to the central bank’s long-term inflation forecast, given the recent positive inflation surprises. Economists at Credit Suisse stick to their 0.97 target in EUR/CHF.

A swift resolution in the Ukraine conflict would be detrimental to CHF

“In light of the increased inflation risks, we find it difficult to imagine a scenario in which the SNB can surprise on the dovish side tomorrow but instead see the risk tilted in the other direction. As such, we stick with our long-held bearish EUR/CHF view and still target 0.97. We would consider our scenario incorrect at levels above 1.0525.”

“The main risk to our outlook lies in a swift resolution in the Ukraine crisis, which would benefit the euro and could lead to a reversal of safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc.”