Economists at Danske Bank revise their EUR/USD forecast down to 1.05 (from 1.08) in 12 months. They see policymakers remaining increasingly committed to curtailing global inflation by tightening financial conditions despite global manufacturing already slowing.

Dollar can keep going higher 

“We revise down our EUR/USD forecast in 12M from 1.08 to 1.05.”

“Global manufacturing is slowing, valuations shows risks are to the downside for spot and the near-term consequences of the war in Ukraine will likely be a further strengthening of the USD. We thus continue to expect EUR/USD can drop further in this environment.”

“The risks to see EUR/USD above 1.20 include global inflation pressures fading and industrial production increasing. The upside risk also include a renewed focus on easing Chinese credit policy and a global capex uptick and the latter two have increased in probability over recent weeks.”