It has been a week of consolidation for the aussie, trading around 0.75. According to economists at Westpac, persistent energy price strength means AUD/USD may probe fresh multi-month highs around 0.7550, but the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) statement may disappoint some eager for rate hike signals.

Resilience in Australia’s export commodity price basket 

“Equity support for AUD has improved but some of the heat is out of commodities, for however long. We expect resilience in Australia’s export commodity price basket multi-week.” 

“Yield spreads have moved a little in A$’s favour in recent days but we doubt the RBA April meeting will encourage markets already aggressively priced for tightening starting after the (expected) May election.” 

“We look for broadly sideways trade n/t, perhaps a dip on the RBA but commodity prices leaving open the chance of a break of 0.7556 resistance.”