EUR/USD has pivoted around the 1.10 area since early March. Despite the relatively upbeat mood of the euro, risks remain. Consequently, economists at Rabobank expect the pair to move downward to 1.08 over next month. 

Concrete signs of peace can likely shift EUR/USD range to 1.10 to 1.12

“We maintain that the value of EUR/USD is set to remain lower this year than it would have been without the conflict and energy uncertainties, and we retain a one-month forecast of 1.08 to reflect the continued risks to the eurozone economy. That said, if the market remains confident that eurozone can avoid recession, it is likely that the EUR can hold a 1.09 to 1.11 range in the coming months.” 

“More concrete signs of peace can likely shift that range to 1.10 to 1.12.”