The dramatic surge higher in USD/JPY has stopped just shy of the 125.86 high of 2015. If the pair is able to surpass this level, a secular base would be completed, opening up the 147/153 zone, economists at Credit Suisse report.

USD/JPY to move into a broad 119/125 range in Q2, possibly lower 

“With weekly momentum having moved to typical high extremes our bias for Q2 is to look for a deeper setback to the 23.6% retracement of the 2021/2022 rally at 119.79, potentially 119.09. We would then look for an attempt to find a floor here for an approximate 119/125 ranging phase.”

“Below 119.09 would warn of a deeper setback to what we would look to be better supported at 116.50/35.”

“If the 125.86 high of 2015 can be cleared this would suggest we have seen the completion of a secular base. If achieved we would see scope for a rise in USD/JPY over the coming years to 135.20 and eventually around 147/153.”