• Oil prices rebounded on Monday as calls for an EU-wide Russian energy import ban gained traction.
• WTI is back to trading in the $103.00s, which will dissappoint the White House after their massive reserve release announcement.

Global oil prices rebounded sharply on Monday as international calls for the EU to place a blanket ban on Russian energy imports mounted in light of mounting evidence of war crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine. Front-month WTI futures were last up $4.0 per barrel to trade in the $103.00s, where they now trade more than $5.50 above the near-two-week lows printed last Friday underneath $98.00. Traders also cited the news of a pause to US/Iran nuclear negotiations as supportive to oil prices, as hopes of a near-term agreement that could pave the way for as much as 1.3M barrel per day in Iranian exports to return to global markets diminished.

Monday’s rebound will come as a disappointment to the White House, who likely expected their announcement last week of a historic release of oil reserves (1M barrels per day for the next six months) to have a bigger market impact. Since the announcement, which came last Thursday, WTI prices are down only about $4.0. Technicals have likely also impacted Monday trade, with the 50-Day Moving Average offering strong support just below $100 per barrel. To the upside, short-term bullish speculators will likely target a retest of the 21DMA, which currently sits just above $107.

In past days, that has acted as a solid area of resistance, but should the push for an EU-wide ban on Russian energy imports continue to gain momentum, an upside break is very much on the cards. Massive US reserve release aside, another key bearish factor for crude oil market participants to keep an eye on right now is the lockdown situation in China, as tough restrictions in Shanghai drag on as authorities race to test all 26M of the city’s inhabitants.