The market is a long way from pricing in a serious risk of a Le Pen victory. The EUR/USD pair could nosedive to 1.05 on a Le Pen win, economists at Credit Suisse report.

EUR/GBP to test 0.80 on a Le Pen victory

“The market is a long way from pricing in a serious risk of a Le Pen victory and EUR could see a lot more damage if one were to come about. That outcome would risk fracturing political and economic consensus in the euro area and EU more generally.”

“Our current expected Q2 range low at EUR/USD 1.0750 does not incorporate a Le Pen win; were that outcome to happen, we suspect a test of EUR/USD 1.05 would follow relatively quickly.

“As for EUR/GBP, we have argued in favour of selling above 0.85 to target 0.8275, but looking to take profits between that level and 0.82. A Le Pen win on the other hand would likely lead to a test of 0.80 not long after.”