The S&P 500 has completed a bearish “outside week”. With the market having gapped lower on Friday on increased volume, analysts at Credit Suisse look for a retest of the 4115 YTD low.

The bearish risk for the market has increased sharply

“The aggressive sell-off last week on increased volume has seen not only a bearish ‘outside week’ established, but also a bearish ‘reversal day’ on Thursday and the market then gap lower on Friday, along with a sharp turn lower on weekly MACD momentum again from zero.

We not only maintain our immediate negative outlook, but look for a further deterioration and a fall to retest support at the 23.6% retracement of the 2020/2021 uptrend at 4199. Below here can see support next at 4162/58 and eventually back at the 4115 Q1 YTD low. Whilst a fresh hold here should be allowed for, we see the risk for an eventual break as high to expose the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 uptrend at 3855/15.” 

“Resistance is seen at 4295 initially, then 4316, with the immediate risk seen staying lower whilst below 4370/94.”