Despite sizeable swings, the USD is not far from the level at which it started in 2023. Economists at HSBC analyze Greenback’s outlook.
Recent data suggests that a soft landing is the most likely outcome for the US and global economy. This would point to a ‘risk on’ mood and consequently a weaker USD into year-end and early 2024, which is our base case.
But if the US either heads to a hard landing or economically outperforms other G10 economies, the USD will strengthen – not our base case.