• FOMC minutes: Inflation risks could require further tightening

Market news

16 tháng 8 2023

FOMC minutes: Inflation risks could require further tightening

  • Federal Reserve released the minutes from its July 25-26 meeting.
  • The minutes showed most fed officials saw a “significant” upside risk to inflation. 
  • US Dollar rises modestly after the minutes.  

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes of its July meeting, triggering a limited reaction across financial markets. According to the document, most federal reserve officials saw "significant" upside risks to inflation. Those risks could require further tightening. Two officials favored holding interest rates steady in July.

At the July meeting, as expected, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%-5.50%, the highest since 2001, after a pause in June. The minutes showed that participants still see below-trend growth and a softer labor market as necessary to restore economic balance.

Key takeaways from the minutes:

Participants commented that monetary policy tightening appeared to be working broadly as intended and that a continued gradual slowing in real GDP growth would help reduce demand–supply imbalances in the economy.

Participants noted the recent reduction in total and core inflation rates. However, they stressed that inflation remained unacceptably high and that further evidence would be required for them to be confident that inflation was clearly on a path toward the Committee's 2 percent objective.

Participants also observed, however, that although growth in payrolls had slowed recently, it continued to exceed values consistent over time with an unchanged unemployment rate, and that nominal wages were still rising at rates above levels assessed to be consistent with the sustained achievement of the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.  

Amid these economic conditions, almost all participants judged it appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent at this meeting. Participants noted that this action would put the stance of monetary policy further into restrictive territory, consistent with reducing demand–supply imbalances in the economy and helping to restore price stability. 

A couple of participants indicated that they favored leaving the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged or that they could have supported such a proposal. They judged that maintaining the current degree of restrictiveness at this time would likely result in further progress toward the Committee's goals while allowing the Committee time to further evaluate this progress.

With inflation still well above the Committee's longer-run goal and the labor market remaining tight, most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy. 

Members concurred that the U.S. banking system was sound and resilient.

Market reaction: 

The US Dollar rose modestly after the minutes, reaching fresh highs against the EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD, and JPY. The US Dollar Index is trading at daily highs around 103.40, near weekly highs, up 0.20% for the day.
 

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