The overall rate is likely to remain well above 3%, the core rate excluding energy and fresh food will likely remain well above 4%. There is no sign of improvement, both rates have remained above the target for several quarters, so the development can be seen as ‘sustainable’.

I see the possibility of the Yen weakening further following the publication of the data which in turn will then worry the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and might cause it to move from verbal to actual interventions. The latter will remain without effect in our view as they constitute a ‘leaning against the wind’.