We believe that there is still room for the market to move higher. Our balance sheet suggests that the oil market will continue to tighten as we move through the second half of the year with a deficit in the region of 2MMbbls/d.

We have left our forecasts for the remainder of the year unchanged. We still expect ICE Brent to average $86/bbl over 3Q23 and $92/bbl over 4Q23.

Our balance shows that the market will remain in deficit over 2024. However, this deficit is heavily skewed towards the second half of 2024. In fact, we see a small surplus in 1Q24, which suggests that prices could pull back early next year, before moving higher once again.