24-hour view: After USD dropped sharply to 144.53 on Wednesday, we highlighted yesterday that “there is room for USD to weaken further.” Our view was incorrect, as USD staged a strong rebound to 145.95. Today, USD could rebound further, but the chance of it breaking clearly above 146.55 is not high. Support is at 145.60, followed by 145.20. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Yesterday (24 Aug, spot at 144.75), we indicated that the recent mild upward pressure has faded and we expected USD to trade in a range of 143.50/146.20. We did not anticipate the strong rebound to 145.95. Despite the rebound, upward momentum has not improved much. From here, USD must break and stay above 146.55 before a sustained rise is likely. The likelihood of USD breaking clearly above 146.55 will remain intact as long as it stays above 144.50 in the next 1 to 2 days.