Last month, we anticipated that the FOMC would begin cutting rates in May 2024. We now look for the Committee to cut rates by 25 bps at its March 2024 meeting.
In total, we look for the FOMC to cut rates by 225 bps next year, a bit less than the 250 bps of easing we had projected last month. This would bring the fed funds target range down to 3.00%-3.25% by the end of 2024. 

Increased prospects of a "soft landing," although still not our base-case view, have led us to modestly pare back our forecasted amount of policy easing.

We believe that the Fed's tightening cycle has come to an end. The probability of another rate hike at the Sept. 20 FOMC meeting appears to be low. We acknowledge the FOMC could raise rates again at its meeting on Nov. 1, but we anticipate that the Committee will remain on hold as inflation continues to ease and as the economy decelerates.