It’ll all be about which way the pendulum swings on the soft-landing debate, and whether markets think the Fed can get away with fine-tuning or will have to get the ‘hammer’ out again. 

The consensus is that they’ll signal one more hike but may not deliver it, with the outcome data dependent. Markets like that vibe, but any deviation from that will impact US bonds, and by extension the USD. 

Locally, the 4.6% rise in WMP at the GDT auction was a relief and may give markets confidence that NZD downside is limited, even if there isn’t a compelling reason for it to go higher (without USD weakness).