Today's meeting seems like a done deal – the effective interest rate and the key interest rate will be merged at 13%, and monetary policy will thus enter the second phase of normalisation.

The question is what to expect in October and how much today's press conference will indicate. In any case, a cautious and hawkish tone can be expected. The hawkish tone should be an impetus for the market to reassess expectations, especially at the short end of the curve, and support the Forint back to levels safely below 390 EUR/HUF.