The government’s verbal intervention threats have curbed the fall of the JPY but are not sufficient to turn JPY fortunes. Even with a high likelihood of intervention, we see further Yen weakening in the short term. 

We still expect that a reversal is in the cards longer term – that is more likely to occur when major central banks turn dovish rather than the BoJ turning hawkish.

USD/JPY – 3M 150 Mid-2024 145 End-2024 140 Mid-2025 130