In the past few days, EUR/USD has travelled from a recent high around 1.0694 back to the 1.0540 area. Economists at Rabobank analyze the pair’s outlook.
The USD will likely continue to be buffered by the movement in US yields in the weeks ahead. That said, we would expect any surge in safe-haven demand to benefit the USD, even if this also drives down treasury yields.
Despite the anticipated efforts by the ECB to promote a higher for longer outlook for European rates, in our view, the weakness of the Eurozone economy suggests scope for further downside pressure on the EUR.
We maintain a forecast of EUR/USD 1.02 on a three-month view.