We highlighted last Monday (30 Oct 2023, spot at 15,920) that “the rally over the past few weeks is severely overbought.” We also highlighted that “further USD/IDR strength is not ruled out, but in view of the overbought conditions, the pace of any advance is likely to be slower, and USD/IDR may find the major resistance at 16,000 difficult to break.” Instead of strengthening further, USD/IDR turned around and plunged to a low of 15,720.

In Asian trade today, USD/IDR weakened further. While severely oversold, the weakness in USD/IDR could extend to 15,450, possibly 15,360. In order to keep the momentum going, USD/IDR must stay below 15,720.