24-hour view: Yesterday, we expected NZD to trade in a range of 0.5900/0.5940. We did not anticipate the elevated volatility as NZD popped to a high of 0.5954 and then plummeted to a low of 0.5893. There is scope for NZD to weaken further, even though the major support at 0.5830 is highly unlikely to come under threat. Note that there is another support at 0.5860. Resistance is at 0.5915; a breach of 0.5935 would mean that NZD is not weakening further. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Two days ago (08 Nov, spot at 0.5935), we highlighted, “while upward momentum has eased, there is still a chance, albeit not a high one, for NZD to rise to 0.6055.” We added, “only a clear break below 0.5900 would indicate the NZD that started late last week has ended.” In NY trade, NZD broke below 0.5900 (low of 0.5893). The price action suggests that NZD has entered a consolidation phase, and it is likely to trade in a range of 0.5830/0.5965 for the time being.