Continued USD weakness is the only scenario suited to prevent continuously higher USD/JPY exchange rate. In view of BoJ policy, I see no reason for an idiosyncratic JPY recovery.

One thing is clear after all: if it is not its inflation projections it must be something else that is preventing the BoJ from a proper tightening of monetary policy. And I cannot really think of any other reason any longer but one very nasty and very JPY-negative one: that the BoJ has long since reached the conclusion that higher interest rates are simply impossible in view of the hopelessly over-indebted government.