24-hour view: The sudden surge in AUD that sent it to a high of 0.6513 came as a surprise (we were expecting it to trade sideways). The outsized and rapid rise is severely overstretched, and AUD is unlikely to rise much further. Today, AUD is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 0.6440 and 0.6525. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Yesterday, AUD surged and blew past our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.6440. The breach of 0.6440 has invalidated our view that AUD “is likely to trade with a downward bias to 0.6300.” While upward momentum has increased after the sharp rally yesterday, AUD has to break above 0.6525 before a further sustained advance to 0.6585 is likely. There appears to be a high likelihood of AUD breaking clearly above 0.6525. On the downside, a breach of 0.6400 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that AUD is not ready to break above 0.6525.