We expect one more hike by the Riksbank before year-end. This should be the last one of the cycle, but we see policymakers continue to prioritise the inflation battle over growth concerns. Orthodox and unorthodox attempts to keep supporting the Krona will remain part of the script, and we cannot exclude an expansion of the FX hedging programme in 2024. 

Fed cuts should favour a rotation to activity currencies including SEK, and allow it to cash in on respectable carry and undervaluation. 

We see EUR/SEK around 11.00 in the second half of 2024.