Our base case is for further modest gains in 2024, with the S&P 500 Index ending the year around 4,700.

But, an unusually wide range of risks could still spoil the outlook. While inflation is declining, markets could be unsettled by any slowing of this process. This could add to fears of a hard landing in the US, as the Fed keeps rates higher for longer. The wars between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas both have the potential to trigger volatility. And the US presidential election will take place against a background of an increasingly dysfunctional budget process.