US activity data needs to do the heavy lifting in a Dollar recovery by reviving bond bears.

We are still doubtful the Fed will want to sit and watch as rates fall, given the lingering interest to keep financial conditions tight at the current juncture, so a more decisive pushback against rate cut bets remains a tangible risk for the FX market and a secondary path for the Dollar to find support outside of US data.

We still expect DXY to climb back above 103.00, but watch for growing selling interest around 103.50 until (and if) key data releases halt the UST rally.