USD/CAD price action remains contained to a disciplined 1.3550/1.2620 range.

The USD’s limited recovery (to retracement resistance at 1.3623 – 38.2% of the November drop) keeps broader risks tilted to the downside on the longer run charts I think but progress lower needs to come sooner rather than later to keep the CAD in with a chance of a modest pick up ahead of year end.

A range break – in either direction – essentially targets a roughly 75 bps move in spot.

A weekly close under 1.35 should add to medium-term downside momentum.