There has been some suggestion that Banxico wants to fine-tune its 11.25% policy rate with a small cut early next year, perhaps in March. The unique problem for Banxico is that Mexico's government is loosening up fiscal policy into a 2024 election year, which should see the economy growing by a decent 2%. It is uncertain, therefore, whether it will offer concrete signs of easing at today's meeting.

Most roads, however, we believe lead to a stable to stronger Peso. The macro story looks good – including record remittances running at $5.8bn per month – but the main risk is that Banxico tries to reign in Peso strength by offering easier policy after all. This should be a positive cocktail for non-FX hedged positions in the short end of the government MBONO bond market. And USD/MXN does not stray too far from 17.00.