A lot of positive news has already been priced in to the Zloty over the past months and EUR/PLN looks increasingly ripe for a correction higher. 

As we expect the global economy to be characterized by weaker growth and inflation impulses during at least H1 2024, an environment usually ill-fitting for Polish assets, we see medium-term headwinds still in place for the Zloty.

In addition to the above, the recent hawkish re-pricing of NBP looks somewhat exaggerated to us and a return to rate cuts during Q1 2024 is likely to provide further headwinds for the PLN.

Forecast: 4.40 (1M), 4.40 (3M), 4.50 (6M), 4.60 (12M)