The biggest drivers of USD/CAD will probably be the general direction of the USD (which we expect to be weaker as US growth slows) and the relative shifts in Canadian and US longer-dated bond yields. A falling US yield environment and a weakening Dollar should drag USD/CAD lower in the absence of fresh new idiosyncratic drivers of the CAD.

In a not very imaginative forecast, we expect USD/CAD to fall to around 1.3% next year, as US yields fall (10s trading down to 3.75%) and the Fed and Bank of Canada ease monetary policy at a similar pace to each other.