While other candidates remain in the race, we expect the election to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

Our current baseline scenario is that Donald Trump wins the presidency in 2024 and that Republicans recapture the Senate, though control of the House may go to the Democrats by a tight margin.

Markets are likely to focus on tax/growth, deficit, regulation, geopolitical, and tariff implications in their reaction to the election. Our base case view of a Trump victory with split Congressional control should push term premium higher and may boost equities amid expectations that corporate taxes remain low.