Economists at ING analyze structural issues faced by China’s economy and the USD/CNH outlook.
There are no quick fixes for the property sector and the measures announced by policymakers to support local equity markets, such as restrictions on short-selling, are not proving effective. There is increasing talk of the People's Bank Of China needing to cut interest rates further.
While local policymakers will be glad that USD/CNH has reversed from the 7.3000/7.3500 area – breaking a 'sell-China' mindset – they will not want the Renminbi to rally too much either. This tends to suggest that USD/CNH can gravitate around the 7.2000 area and that Asian FX will continue in its very sluggish start to 2024.