Ahead of this year’s UK general election, the ruling Tory party continues to keep the headline writers happy with stories of potential rebellion and new factions. GBP, however, remains unmoved. 

The fact that the Tory party has been trailing Labour by around 20 pts in the polls for months, appears to have made these reports irrelevant.  

The poor state of UK finances suggests that whoever wins the keys of No 11 Downing Street after the election will be forced to maintain budgetary prudence.  

Given signs that the UK election will fail to ignite budgetary fireworks, we continue to expect EUR/GBP to trend down towards 0.8400 by H2.