Downside risks to Sterling will emerge from both the BoE dropping its tightening bias and the voting structure shifting from a 6-3 (three for a hike) to a 9-0. We rarely hear from the BoE so in a way, this would be the BoE's chance to play catch-up with some of the dovish rhetoric being used by both the Fed and the ECB. 

GBP/USD could be just a 1.2600 story if we are right with our dovish leaning today.

We will get this wrong if the BoE wants to emphasise sticky services inflation and if one or two of the hawks continue to vote for rate hikes. Currently, the market seems to price the first BoE cut for June. We think the easing cycle is more likely to start in August.