We maintain the strategic case for a lower EUR/USD based on the relative terms of trade, real rates, and relative unit labour costs. Hence, we expect a downward trajectory over the course of the year. In the near term, we like to sell the cross on rallies. 

Although our forecast for the Fed and the ECB suggests upside risk to EUR/USD in H1, we stress that the broader market pricing in G10, which we believe is too aggressive for cuts, could prove to be more crucial for EUR/USD. 

Unless we see a notable turnaround in US data, we anticipate the USD to remain strong in the near term.