We set a 2024 S&P 500 year-end target of 5,100.

All measures of earnings beats in the US are well above the upper end of their pre-pandemic ranges, typically seen in early stages of recovery from major cyclical downturns; Multiple staying near 20x, a little higher than fair value at 18x;  Catalysts impacting the trajectory include rates vs. rates vol, inflation, the US presidential election, and potential productivity gains.