Our view that rate cuts in New Zealand won’t start before August and that the Fed should instead start cutting during the summer translates into a bullish NZD/USD profile for the rest of the year. However, external volatility can offset the positives of a hawkish RBNZ in February and favour a near-term slide to more attractive levels for longer-term bullish positioning. 

We see NZD/USD breaking the 0.6500 mark in 3Q24.

Some downside risks related to the US elections and potentially negative implications for China-related sentiment may warrant a less optimistic NZD profile in 4Q24.