As broadly expected, the ECB left policy on hold. The statement was largely as expected, with no tangible changes to the language.

Inflation forecasts were revised down slightly, further suggesting that cuts are coming. 

President Lagarde came as close as she could to saying the ECB would not cut in April, with strong hints of June.

The ECB is a bit of a nothing burger for the EUR today with much of the focus likely to shift to US data and other global drivers. 

We continue to forecast a break of 1.1000 to the upside in Q2, reflecting broad USD underperformance.