Analysts at Rabobank share their short-term outlook for AUD/USD.

Fed is likely to start cutting rates in September

"Measured on a 5-day view, the AUD is the best performing G10 currency. Not only has firmer AUD price data created some unease about the RBA’s potential to cut rates, but softer US PMI data this week has provided some reassurance about the ability of the Fed to ease in the coming months. The USD has consequently fallen back against the majority of G10 currencies."

"In Rabo’s view, the Fed is likely to start cutting rates in September. This suggests the prospect of a softer USD from the summer. This week’s US and Australia data releases have reinforced our view that AUD/USD is likely to trend higher later in the year and into 2025. However, near-term the AUD/USD may find it difficult to extent this week gains. This is likely to depend on the releases of US GDP and PCE inflation later this week. The 200 days Simple Moving Average (SMA) is likely to offer resistance at AUD/USD 0.6529."