• U.S. consumer inflation expectations recover from five-year low - New York Federal Reserve survey

Market news

9 December 2019

U.S. consumer inflation expectations recover from five-year low - New York Federal Reserve survey

New York Federal Reserve survey revealed the U.S. consumers' inflation expectations increased slightly in November, bringing the outlook for near and medium-term inflation up from a five-year low, and potentially offering relief to policymakers worried about sagging inflation.

The median outlook for what inflation will be over the next three years edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 2.5%, the survey showed.

Meanwhile, expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose marginally by 0.02 percentage point to 2.4%. 

In October, both inflation outlooks were at a series low for the survey, which began in 2013.

The New York Fed survey also found that consumers are optimistic about the labor market and their job prospects. Workers' perceived risk of losing a job in the next 12 months declined to an average of 14.4% in November, from 14.8% in October. The average chance of finding work after a job loss also rose to 59.3% in November from 58.8% the month before.

In addition, workers feel more confident in their ability to afford their bills. The average chance of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased to 11.3% in November from 11.6% the month before.

Expectations for household income growth improved to 2.9% in November from 2.8% in October.

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