(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0664 +0,33%

GBP/USD $1,2340 +0,65%

USD/CHF Chf1,006 -0,13%

USD/JPY Y114,86 +0,19%

EUR/JPY Y122,48 +0,51%

GBP/JPY Y141,74 +0,86%

AUD/USD $0,7559 + 0,74%

NZD/USD $0,7188 +0,92%

USD/CAD C$1,3316 +0,37%

00:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m November -8.5%

01:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks

02:00 China Industrial Production y/y December 6.2% 6.1%

02:00 China Retail Sales y/y December 10.8% 10.7%

02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment December 8.3% 8.3%

02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter IV 6.7% 6.7%

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) December 0.3% 0.4%

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) December 0.1% 1%

09:00 Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meetings

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) December 0.2% -0.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) December 5.9% 7.2%

13:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m November 1.1% 0.5%

13:30 Canada Retail Sales YoY November 3.8%

13:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m November 1.4% 0.1%

13:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m December -0.4% -0.1%

13:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y December 1.2% 1.7%

13:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y December 1.5% 1.7%

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 485.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 6.0 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels last week but are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 7.4 million barrels last week but are in the upper half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2.0 million barrels last week.

• Too Early to Comment on Brexit Outcomes

• Final Outcome of Brexit Negotiations Will be Very Important

• We Stand Ready to Upgrade, Revise Strategy As Needed

• Buying Below Deposit Rate Greatly Enlarges Purchase 'Universe'

• Increasingly Clear That Policy Stance Successful

• Risks Coming from Global Uncertainty

• Inflation Mostly Driven By Energy, Underlying Pressure Subdued

• Germans Have Benefitted from Recovery

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,210,000. This is 0.2 percent below the revised November rate of 1,212,000, but is 0.7 percent above the December 2015 estimate of 1,201,000.

Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 817,000; this is 4.7 percent above the revised November figure of 780,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 355,000 in December. An estimated 1,186,900 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2016. This is 0.4 percent above the 2015 figure of 1,182,600.

Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,226,000. This is 11.3 percent (±10.4%) above the revised November rate of 1,102,000 and is 5.7 percent above the December 2015 rate of 1,160,000.

Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 795,000; this is 4.0 percent below the revised November figure of 828,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 417,000. An estimated 1,166,400 housing units were started in 2016. This is 4.9 percent above the 2015 figure of 1,111,800.

Canadian investors reduced their holdings of foreign securities by $7.9 billion in November, largely through sales of US instruments. At the same time, foreign acquisitions of Canadian securities slowed to $7.2 billion, following a $15.8 billion investment in October.

As a result, international transactions in securities generated a net inflow of funds of $15.1 billion into the Canadian economy in the month. From January to November, foreign investment in Canadian securities has exceeded Canadian investment in foreign securities by $142.3 billion.

• Draghi: Headline Inflation has Increased Lately, Due to Base Effects

• Very Substantial Degree of Monetary Accommodation Is Needed

• If Outlook Less Favorable, We Stand Ready to Increase Asset Purchases

• Decisions on Purchases Below Deposit Rate Published at 3:30pm CET

• Borrowing Conditions for Firms and Households Benefit from Policies

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0660 1.0685 1.0700 1.0720-25 1.0750 1.0785 1.0800

Bids: 1.0625-30 1.0600 1.0580 1.0565 1.0550 1.0520 1.0500

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2325-30 1.2360 1.2380 1.2400 1.2420 1.2450 1.2475-80 1.2500

Bids: 1.2280 1.2250 1.2230 1.2200 1.2185 1.2150 1.2100

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8680 0.8700 0.8730 0.8750 0.8780 0.8800

Bids: 0.8650 0.8620-25 0.8600 0.8585 0.8550 0.8530 0.8500

EUR/JPY

Offers: 122.50 122.80 123.00 123.30 124.00

Bids: 122.00 121.80 121.50 121.00 120.80 120.50 120.00

USD/JPY

Offers: 115.00 115.20 115.35 115.50 115.80 116.00 116.30 116.50

Bids: 114.50 114.20 114.00 113.85 113.55-60 113.20 113.00 112.80 112.65 112.50

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7560 0.7580 0.7600 0.7630 0.7650 0.7675 0.7700

Bids: 0.7520 0.7500 0.7480-850.7450 0.7430 0.7400

Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

At today's meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

"We get a likely uneventful ECB meeting on Thursday, but it is still likely to be a combination of renewed widening in yield differentials and a ramping-up of nervousness ahead of the French elections which will be the catalyst for renewed Euro weakness when that happens.The choppiness of the most heavily traded pairs, like EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD, not to mention the recent moves in equities and bonds, is making life difficult for anyone who doesn't just put positions in place and walk away. Those who do just walk away are probably the ones still long dollars, short Treasuries and waiting for President Trump to begin his first hundred days in office".

"In line with an overwhelming consensus, we do not expect any changes to the ECB's monetary policy programme at tomorrow's meeting. Instead, we expect the focus to be on the Governing Council's assessment of macro-economic developments in light of some positive dataflow over the past few weeks. Thanks in part to that dataflow, we now believe the risks to the ECB's (and consensus) forecasts for the growth and inflation outlook have shifted to the upside. During the post-meeting press conference, President Draghi will nevertheless probably re-emphasise the ECB's strong commitment to the existing monetary policy programme by stressing some of the numerous downside risks that could generate further instability for the region in the months ahead. In terms of trades: we enter 10yr OLO vs short 10yr RFGB at 20bp targeting 10bp (stop 25bp), but also a tactical long 15yr BTP Mar-32 vs 10yr and 20yr at 10.5bp with a target at 0bp stop at 15b".

The current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €36.1 billion in November 2016 (see Table 1). This reflected surpluses for goods (€30.9 billion), primary income (€12.1 billion) and services (€4.8 billion), which were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€11.7 billion).

The 12-month cumulated current account for the period ending in November 2016 recorded a surplus of €358.1 billion (3.4% of euro area GDP), compared with one of €319.9 billion (3.1% of euro area GDP) for the 12 months to November 2015 (see Table 1 and Chart 1). This was due to increases in the surpluses for goods (from €344.3 billion to €370.2 billion) and services (from €59.2 billion to €68.4 billion), as well as a decrease in the deficit for secondary income (from €132.7 billion to €127.6 billion). These were offset to a limited extent by a decrease in the surplus for primary income (from €49.1 billion to €47.1 billion).

"We used the recent rally in EURUSD to add a short position to our portfolio. Our arguments for a weaker EUR have not changed. In the absence of further political integration, the ECB may have to remain accommodative to support the struggling periphery even as the core overheats. As EMU inflation shows signs of rising, real yields may decline to weaken the EUR. The risk of rising populism with the upcoming elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany will also be an undertone for the currency. We'll pay particular attention to the ECB's rhetoric on the recent upside surprise in inflation".

The total index of producer and import prices rose by 0.2 percent in December 2016 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.0 points (December 2015 = 100 basis). Compared to December 2015, the rate of inflation thus amounted to 0.0 percent. The average annual tax rate in 2016 was -1.8 percent. This is evident from the figures of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

The average annual taxation 2016 corresponds to the rate of change between the 2016 annual average and the 2015 annual average. The annual average is calculated as the arithmetic average of the 12 month indices of the calendar year.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0783 (2411)

$1.0751 (2226)

$1.0716 (254)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0640

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0610 (1377)

$1.0566 (1384)

$1.0509 (2686)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 54458 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0750 (3362);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 65663 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0000 (4886);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.21 versus 1.17 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 18

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2510 (1380)

$1.2413 (399)

$1.2318 (668)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2258

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2186 (1033)

$1.2090 (519)

$1.1992 (2275)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 17322 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (1462);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 21350 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3230);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.23 versus 1.19 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 18

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

"The ECB's Governing Council will meet on Thursday, January 19. In line with the broad market consensus, we expect little action at the meeting, based on the lack of market news since December. Specifically, we expect key policy rates to be left unchanged, and no changes to the Asset Purchase Programme (APP). We expect the introductory statement to continue to describe risks to the growth outlook as skewed to the downside, and that Mr. Draghi will resist any suggestion that recent inflation data warrant the withdrawal of monetary accommodation".

• Monetary Policy Has Little Influence Over Structural Unemployment

• Monetary Policy Cannot, by Itself, Create a Health Economy

• Waiting Too Long to Raise Rates Could Risk 'Nasty Surprise' of High Inflation, Instability

• Makes Sense to Ease Monetary Policy as Economy Approaches Fed Goals

• Wage Growth Remains Fairly Low, Only Begun to Pick Up Recently

The seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented fell 9.2 percent in November 2016 compared with October 2016. This followed a 2.0 percent rise in October. The trend is showing signs of decreasing after reaching a 12-year high in mid-2016.

In the year ended November 2016, 30,303 new dwellings were consented - up 13 percent from the November 2015 year.

Expectations of consumer price inflation in Australia, published by the Institute of Melbourne, was 4.3%, which is higher than the previous value of 3.4%. This indicator reflects the expectations of consumers about inflation for the next 12 months. However, the increase in interest rates by the Australian central bank is unlikely in the near future, as many other economic data from Australia, less positive than expected.

• Employment increased 13,500 to 11,985,900. Full-time employment increased 9,300 to 8,176,500 and part-time employment increased 4,200 to 3,809,500.

• Unemployment increased 14,700 to 741,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 15,000 to 528,900 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 300 to 212,200.

• Unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 5.8%.

• Participation rate increased 0.1 pts to 64.7%.