(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0629 -0,79%

GBP/USD $1,2260 -1,25%

USD/CHF Chf1,0073 +0,59%

USD/JPY Y114,64 +1,77%

EUR/JPY Y121,85 +0,99%

GBP/JPY Y140,52 +0,53%

AUD/USD $0,7503 -0,83%

NZD/USD $0,7122 -1,29%

USD/CAD C$1,3267 +1,71%

00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation January 3.4%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed December 39.1 10

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate December 5.7% 5.7%

08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m December 0.1% 0.2%

08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y December -0.6% 0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Current account, unadjusted, bln November 32.8

12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.0% 0%

13:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference

13:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases November 15.75 10.23

13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) November -0.8% 1.0%

13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 2087 2073

13:30 U.S. Housing Starts December 1090 1200

13:30 U.S. Building Permits December 1212 1225

13:30 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey January 21.5 15.8

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 247 254

16:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories January 4.097

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Uncertainty about the global outlook is undiminished, particularly with respect to policies in the United States. The Bank has made initial assumptions about prospective tax policies only, resulting in a modest upward revision to its US growth outlook. Overall, the global economy is strengthening largely as expected and prices of some commodities, including oil, have risen. The rapid back-up in global bond yields, partly reflecting market anticipation of US fiscal expansion, has pulled up Canadian yields relative to the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

Industrial production rose 0.8 percent in December after falling 0.7 percent in November. For the fourth quarter as a whole, the index slipped 0.6 percent at an annual rate. In December, manufacturing output moved up 0.2 percent and mining output was unchanged.

The index for utilities jumped 6.6 percent, largely because of a return to more normal temperatures following unseasonably warm weather in November; the gain last month was the largest since December 1989. At 104.6 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in December was 0.5 percent above its year-earlier level.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.6 percentage point in December to 75.5 percent, a rate that is 4.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2015) average.

"Data since the October Monetary Policy Report have been better than the BoC expected, and business sentiment has improved. We and consensus therefore expect the Bank to remain on hold, while emphasizing the significant slack remaining in the economy".

ЕUR/USD 1.0550 (EUR 1bln) 1.0640-55 (1.1bln) 1.0700 (751m)

USD/JPY 113.35 (USD 300m) 114.00 (893m) 114.10-15 (436m)

GBP/USD 1.2000 (GBP 410m)

EUR/GBP 0.8700 (EUR 300m)

EUR/JPY 120.95-121.00 (EUR 535m)

AUD/NZD 1.0500 (AUD 1bln)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Continuing their recent trends, the shelter and gasoline indexes increased in December and were largely responsible for the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent in December, while the gasoline index increased 3.0 percent.

European stocks fluctuate slightly and mixed, investors await the outcome of tomorrow's meeting of the European Central Bank.

According to most economists, the ECB will not make adjustments to monetary policy, and later this year will extend the asset purchase program at least until the beginning of 2018.

In addition, investors assess the report on inflation in Germany (1.7% in December, a record figure since 2013), final data on the growth of consumer prices in the euro zone and UK data on the labor market.

Eurozone annual inflation was 1.1% in December 2016, compared with 0.6% in November. In December 2015, this figure was 0.2%. EU annual inflation was 1.2% in December 2016, compared with 0.6% in November. A year earlier the rate was 0.2%, says Eurostat.

The unemployment rate in the UK remained stable in the three months to November, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell, showed the Office for National Statistics. The unemployment rate was 4.8 percent, the lowest since September 2005 and in line with expectations of economists. During the three months to November, unemployment fell by 52,000 to 1.6 million people. The average salary, including bonuses, increased by 2.8 percent compared with the previous year and earnings excluding bonuses were up 2.7 percent. The level of applications for unemployment benefits remained steady at 2.3 percent in December. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 10,100 in November.

The composite index of the largest companies in the region Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.1% to 362.05 points.

Shares of Pearson Plc dropped by 26% after the company downgraded the outlook for the current year, gave up the forecast for 2018, reduced dividends and announced plans to sell its stake in Penguin Random House. As stated in the press release, the operating profit in 2017 will be between 570 million to 630 million pounds ($ 705 million - $ 780 million).

Burberry shares rose 0.3%. Retail revenue of one of the world's leading manufacturers of luxury goods increased in the 3rd quarter of 2017 by 4% excluding changes in exchange rates and by 22% taking into account currency fluctuations.

The capitalization of Deutsche Bank AG fell 0.5%. The largest bank in Germany and the US Department of Justice ompleted work on the settlement. The amount of the settlement has not changed - $ 7.2 billion, according to a Ministry of Justice report.

At the moment:

FTSE 7233.08 12.70 0.18%

DAX 11555.26 15.26 0.13%

CAC 4841.30 -18.39 -0.38%

"In Canada, the BoC will leave interest rates on hold and likely also make few changes to its economic outlook. Even though recent readings on trade and employment have been encouraging, they were only enough to bring our tracking forecast for Q4 GDP back to the Bank's 1.5%. With few firms reporting "concrete effects" from the US elections on their sales expectations, the Bank's Business Outlook survey did little to clarify their view of what President-elect Trump will mean for Canada...We argued yesterday that the BoC are unlikely be unconcerned by the current value of the currency. However, should we decisively breach and close below 1.30, we have not closed below the level since early September, this would risk the topic of the currency moving up the agenda in the BoC's MPR press briefing tomorrow. While investors may continue to moderate USD long positions into the Presidential inauguration, USD CAD looks increasingly oversold near recent 1.3030 lows".

Euro area annual inflation was 1.1% in December 2016, up from 0.6% in November. In December 2015 the rate was 0.2%. European Union annual inflation was 1.2% in December 2016, up from 0.6% in November. A year earlier the rate was 0.2%. These figures come from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

In December 2016, negative annual rates were observed in Bulgaria (-0.5%), Ireland (-0.2%) and Romania (-0.1%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia (2.4%), Belgium (2.2%), the Czech Republic and Latvia (both 2.1%). Compared with November 2016, annual inflation fell in one Member State, remained stable in one and rose in twenty-six.

The largest upward impacts to euro area annual inflation came from fuels for transport (+0.21 percentage points), vegetables (+0.07 pp) and heating oil (+0.05 pp), while gas (-0.10 pp), telecommunications (-0.05 pp) and personal care products (-0.04 pp) had the biggest downward impacts.

UR/USD 1.0550 (EUR 1bln) 1.0640-55 (1.1bln) 1.0700 (751m)

USD/JPY 113.35 (USD 300m) 114.00 (893m) 114.10-15 (436m)

GBP/USD 1.2000 (GBP 410m)

EUR/GBP 0.8700 (EUR 300m)

EUR/JPY 120.95-121.00 (EUR 535m)

AUD/NZD 1.0500 (AUD 1bln)

Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

Average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.8% including bonuses and by 2.7% excluding bonuses compared with a year earlier.

Between June to August 2016 and September to November 2016, the number of people in work was little changed, the number of unemployed people decreased, and the number of people not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) increased.

There were 31.80 million people in work, little changed compared with June to August 2016 but 294,000 more than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate was 4.8%, down from 5.1% for a year earlier. It has not been lower since July to September 2005. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force (those in work plus those unemployed) that were unemployed.

• At 14:00 GMT FOMC member Robert Kaplan will deliver a speech

• At 15:00 GMT the Bank of Canada decision on the basic interest rate

• At 16:00 GMT FOMC members Neil Kashkari will deliver a speech

• At 20:00 GMT the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Janet Yellen will deliver a speech

• The annual World Economic Forum in Davos. Day 2

"We expect CAD to outperform other commodity currencies. CAD is not as vulnerable as MXN to trade protectionism given a prior free trade agreement which would take effect if the US backs out of NAFTA, though this remains a risk. However, a better US economic outlook (from other policies like fiscal stimulus) should benefit Canada.

However, this week's BoC meeting is a key risk; the markets are pricing in a relatively hawkish path for the Bank which they may pushback on given the mixed data overall in Canada. Recent trade data and the 4Q business outlook survey were better than expected, but core inflation has decelerated and growth remains challenged. At the end of the day, we expect the BoC to adopt a neutral tone and emphasize a wait and see approach. But we do see dips in CAD from a more dovish BoC, and we see them as opportunities to buy".

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0815 (2212)

$1.0787 (2215)

$1.0756 (254)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0680

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0581 (1291)

$1.0552 (1492)

$1.0519 (2541)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 53610 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3334);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 62944 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0000 (4893);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.17 versus 1.17 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 17

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2611 (1368)

$1.2515 (1491)

$1.2420 (361)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2334

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2285 (680)

$1.2189 (901)

$1.2091 (446)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 19687 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (4118);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 23440 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1900 (4715);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.19 versus 1.21 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 17

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

The consumer confidence index in Australia increased by 0.1% in January to 97.4, after declining by 3.9% to 97.3 in December. The consumer confidence index - indicator published by the Faculty of Economics and Commerce at the University of Melbourne - reflects the level of public confidence in the economy by means of ratings by respondents into categories such as personal financial situation in the past year and the outlook for next year, expectations about the economic situation in the 1- and 5-year term, as well as the current consumer climate.

Weekly consumer confidence index rose to 120.1 from 113.4 the previous value. Earlier, the consumer confidence index from Australian ANZ also showed improvement.

• Normal rates will be below 3%

• The labor market has reached full employment

• To maintain the strength of the labor market needs increase in the number of jobs by 80 000 per month

• The unemployment rate will bottom out at 4.5%, job growth will slow

• Trend growth is 1.5% -1.75% per year

• The inflation rate is close to the target of 2%

• The greatest risk to the US economy are global in nature

• Europe still faces a very difficult economic and political situation

• Fiscal policy will give little impetus to GDP growth in the first half of this year

Following low inflation rates - as measured by the consumer price index - in the first half of the year, the rate of price increase rose towards the end of 2016, reaching its highest level of the year in December 2016 (+1.7%). The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that a higher inflation rate was last recorded in July 2013 (+1.9%). On an annual average in 2016, the consumer prices in Germany rose 0.5% on 2015. The year-on-year rate of price increase thus was slightly above previous year's level (2015: +0.3%).

The low 2016 inflation rate was largely due to the development of energy product prices. On the whole, prices of energy products fell markedly by 5.4% in 2016 on 2015. The downward effect on prices, however, was smaller than in the previous year (2015: -7.0% on 2014).

Price decreases were recorded in 2016 especially for mineral oil products (-9.3%, of which heating oil: -16.9%; motor fuels: -7.3%) and charges for central and district heating (-8.5%). For gas, too, price decreases were observed on an annual average (-3.0%). Only electricity prices rose in 2016 (+0.6% on 2015). Excluding energy prices, the inflation rate in 2016 would have been markedly higher (+1.2%).