(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 52.53 +0.10%

Gold 1,216.70 +0.31%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -281.71 18813.53 -1.48%

TOPIX -21.54 1509.10 -1.41%

Hang Seng +122.82 22840.97 +0.54%

CSI 300 +6.91 3326.36 +0.21%

Euro Stoxx 50 -9.49 3285.04 -0.29%

FTSE 100 -106.75 7220.38 -1.46%

DAX -14.71 11540.00 -0.13%

CAC 40 -22.49 4859.69 -0.46%

DJIA -58.96 19826.77 -0.30%

S&P 500 -6.75 2267.89 -0.30%

NASDAQ -35.39 5538.73 -0.63%

S&P/TSX -37.93 15441.36 -0.25%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0713 +1,05%

GBP/USD $1,2413 +2,96%

USD/CHF Chf1,0014 -1,03%

USD/JPY Y112,61 -1,40%

EUR/JPY Y120,64 -0,33%

GBP/JPY Y139,78 +1,61%

AUD/USD $0,7565 +1,19%

NZD/USD $0,7214 +1,57%

USD/CAD C$1,304 -1,03%

07:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) December 0.1% 0.7%

07:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) December 0.8% 1.7%

09:00 Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meetings

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y November 2.6% 2.6%

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y November 2.5% 2.6%

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count December 2.4 5.0

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate November 4.8% 4.8%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI December -0.1% 0.5%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) December 0.6% 1.1%

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y (Finally) December 0.8% 0.9%

13:30 U.S. CPI, m/m December 0.2% 0.3%

13:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y December 1.7% 2.1%

13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m December 0.2% 0.2%

13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y December 2.1% 2.2%

14:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization December 75.0% 75.4%

14:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) December -0.4% 0.6%

14:15 U.S. Industrial Production YoY December -0.6%

15:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 0.5% 0.5%

15:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement

15:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index January 70 69

16:15 Canada BOC Press Conference

19:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book

21:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows November 9.4 21.3

21:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows November 18.8

21:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI December 54.4

21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m November 2.6%

Major US stock indexes closed below zero amid falling shares of conglomerates sector and financial sphere after comments from Donald Trump on the US dollar and speech British Prime Minister Theresa May on the release of the UK plan from the EU structure.

Trump in an interview with Wall Street Journal noted that US companies can not compete with China, "because our currency is too strong. And it's killing us." In addition, Trump has spoken out against the proposed plan by Republicans in Congress on taxes for companies, known as the adjustment of customs duties. It is expected that the plan on the taxation of imports and tax incentives for exports will support the dollar. Overall, his comments led some investors to reconsider expectations for what Trump will soon be able to implement fiscal stimulus and tax cuts.

In addition, as it became known, business activity continued to modestly grow in New York, according to the companies answered in January 2017 in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. General business conditions index slightly dropped to 6.5. The new orders index fell to 3.1, indicating a slight increase in orders and shipments index remained at 7.3. Inventories rose slightly for the first time in over a year. The conditions in the labor market remained weak, though smaller than in recent months. Manufacturers reported a slight decrease in employment and a number of shorter working weeks.

Meanwhile, investors continue to closely monitor the outgoing financial statements corporate segment. Recall, reports the largest banks on an optimistic note opened the season of quarterly reports in the US on Friday.

DOW index components ended the day mostly in negative territory (18 of 30). Outsider were shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM, -3.83%). Most remaining shares increased Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT, + 2.00%).

Sector S & P index closed mostly in the red. conglomerates (-2.3%) sectors fell most. The leader turned utilities sector (+ 1.0%).

At the close:

Dow -0.28% 19,829.68 -56.05

Nasdaq -0.63% 5,538.73 -35.39

S & P -0.30% 2,267.83 -6.81

Polish equities closed lower on Tuesday. The broad market measure, the WIG Index, fell by 0.23%. Sector performance within the WIG Index was mixed. Mining sector (-1.14%) fared the worst, while autimobiles (+1.40%) outperformed.

The large-cap stocks' measure, the WIG30 Index, dropped by 0.54%. In the index basket, coking coal miner JSW (WSE: JSW) was the poorest performers, slumping by 4.85%. It was followed by FMCG-wholesaler EUROCASH (WSE: EUR), footwear retailer CCC (WSE: CCC), bank PKO BP (WSE: PKO) and thermal coal miner BOGDANKA (WSE: LWB), tumbling between 1.7% and 2.21% respectively. On the plus side, oil refiner PKN ORLEN (WSE: PKN) topped the outperformers with a gain of 0.78% despite the report the stock suffered a recommendation cut to 'Hold', with target price maintained at PLN 88.5 by analysts of one of Poland's leading brokerage house. Other largest advancers were chemical producer SYNTHOS (WSE: SNS), clothing retailer LPP (WSE: LPP), property developer GTC (WSE: GTC) and railway freight transport operator PKP CARGO (WSE: PKP), returning between 0.55% and 0.78%.

Major U.S. stock-indexes fell on Tuesday, with healthcare and financial stocks coming under pressure, as investors assessed President-elect Donald's Trump's comments on the dollar and drug pricing. U.S. stocks and the dollar have rallied since Trump's election on bets that he would usher in an era of economic growth through fiscal stimulus. However, the rally has hit a speed bump as Trump has provided little detail on his policies.

Most of Dow stocks in positive area (18 of 30). Top gainer - Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT, +3.05%). Top loser - JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM, -2.51%).

Most of S&P sectors in negative area. Top loser - Utilities (+1.2%). Top loser - Healthcare (-0.8%).

At the moment:

Dow 19792.00 -40.00 -0.20%

S&P 500 2266.00 -6.50 -0.29%

Nasdaq 100 5046.25 -15.00 -0.30%

Oil 52.58 +0.21 +0.40%

Gold 1213.30 +17.10 +1.43%

U.S. 10yr 2.38 +0.02

A weaker dollar and jitters about the U.K.'s exit from the European Union helped lift gold to a two-month high on Tuesday, says Dow Jones.

Gold gained 1% to $1,216.38 a troy ounce in midmorning trade, on course for its highest close since Nov. 16, ahead of a speech from Prime Minister Theresa May at 11:45 GMT that is expected to flesh out her plan for bringing the U.K. out of the bloc.

"Depending on how confrontational May's line proves vis-à-vis the EU, gold could be in considerable demand during the course of the day," wrote analysts at Commerzbank.

Mrs. May is set to declare that Britain doesn't want "partial membership" in the EU "or anything that leaves us half-in, half-out," according to excerpts of a speech released by her office.

• Possible Monetary Policy Could Be Affected for Some Time by Uncertainty Over Fiscal Policy, Effects on Economy

• Many Sources of Uncertainty Affecting Trajectory of U.S. Economy, Monetary Policy

• Has Been Speculation About Significant Changes to Fiscal Policy of Late

• Magnitude, Composition, Timing of Any Fiscal Changes as Yet Unknown

• Even Once Any Changes Enacted, Uncertainty Will Remain About Effects on Economy

• Additional Fiscal Demand Will Likely Result in Inflationary Pressures When Economy Close to Full Employment, Inflation Near Target

The Americans began the first trading day this week from a discount of 0.29% (the S&P500 index), which after the first transactions started to slightly deeper. The situation on Wall Street has no impact on the behavior of the Warsaw market, where the graph of the WIG20 still is located at a safe distance from the level of 2,0000 points.

An hour before the close of trading the WIG20 index was at the level of 2,018 points (-0.33%).

U.S. stock-index futures fell as investors sought safe-haven assets following President-elect Donald Trump's comments on the dollar and British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit speech. Mr. Trump told the Wall Street Journal that U.S. companies could not compete with China "because our currency is too strong. And it's killing us".

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 18,813.53 -281.71 -1.48%

Hang Seng 22,840.97 +122.82 +0.54%

Shanghai 3,108.77 +5.34 +0.17%

FTSE 7,258.29 -68.84 -0.94%

CAC 4,878.56 -3.62 -0.07%

DAX 11,560.42 +5.71 +0.05%

Crude $53.16 (+1.51%)

Gold $1,212.40 (+1.35%)

Business activity continued to grow modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

The headline general business conditions index was little changed at 6.5. The new orders index fell to 3.1, pointing to a small increase in orders, and the shipments index held steady at 7.3.

Inventories edged higher for the first time in more than a year. Labor market conditions remained weak, though less so than in recent months, with manufacturers reporting a slight decline in employment and somewhat shorter workweeks.

Both input prices and selling prices increased more rapidly this month, with the prices paid index climbing to its highest level in nearly three years, and the prices received index also jumping to a multiyear high.

EUR/USD 1.0500 (EUR 2.42bln) 1.0600 (505m) 1.0700 (2.41bln) 1.0800 (281m) 1.0850 (690m)

USD/JPY 115.00 (USD 1.3bln) 116.00 (700m) 117.00 (420m) 117.25 (380m) 118.00 (839m)

USD/CAD 1.3245 (USD 300m) 1.3300 (1.26bln)

NZD/USD 0.7005 (NZD 173m)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Upgrades:

Travelers (TRV) upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Macquarie

American Express (AXP) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan

Walt Disney (DIS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; target raised to $134 from $109

Downgrades:

Twitter (TWTR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS; target lowered to $18 from $22

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette

Other:

"The USD may replace its reflation related bid with safe haven related demand. This scenario suggests the JPY staying correctively strong for now,gaining on many crosses, while GBP and high yielding currencies may be hit as political and currency related concerns increase.

Deflation tends to increase real yields of low yielding currencies, suggesting USDJPY may drift towards our 112.50 target. However, GBPUSD breaking lower will undermine any bid in EURUSD too. This applies even more when following the Carney argument of seeing a failure of UK-EMU negotiations leading to a disproportional increase in inner EMU financial stability risks. Peripheral spreads quietly workinghigher supports Carney's view.

Meanwhile, Greece could move quickly back into focus should the IMF opt-out require new negotiations with Greece and a new approval by the German Bundestag according to Germany's Schaeuble. Accordingly, there could be a new programme implying additional fiscal measures and further

We used the recent rally in EURUSD to add a short position from 1.0650 to our portfolio. Our arguments for a weaker EUR have not changed. In the absence of further political integration, the ECB may have to remain accommodative to support the struggling periphery even as the core overheats drastic reforms in Greece. The issue becomes even more complicated when we put the views of the incoming US administration into Europe's context".

Copyright © 2017 Morgan Stanley, eFXnews

UnitedHealth reported Q4 FY 2016 earnings of $2.11 per share (versus $1.40 in Q4 FY 2015), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $2.07.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $47.523 bln (+9% y/y), generally in-line with analysts' consensus estimate of $47.116 bln.

The company also reaffirmed guidance for FY2017, projecting EPS of $9.30-9.60 (versus analysts' consensus estimate of $9.51) and revenues of $197-199 bln (versus analysts' consensus estimate of $198.69 bln).

UNH rose to $162.00 (+0.12%) in pre-market trading.

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0680 1.0700 1.0725-30 1.0750 1.0785 1.0800

Bids: 1.0625-30 1.0600 1.0580 1.0565 1.0550 1.0520 1.0500

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2150 1.2175-80 1.2200 1.2225-30 1.2250 1.2280 1.2300

Bids: 1.2100 1.2080 1.2050-60 1.2030 1.2000 1.1975-80 1.1950 1.1930 1.1900

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8800 0.8820-25 0.8850 0.8880 0.8900

Bids: 0.8780 0.8755-60 0.8720-25 0.8700 0.8685 0.8665 0.8650

EUR/JPY

Offers: 121.00 121.30 121.50 121.80 122.00

Bids: 120.50 120.00 119.75 119.50 119.00

USD/JPY

Offers: 113.50 113.80 114.00 114.30 114.601 14.80 115.00 115.20 115.50

Bids: 113.00 112.80-85 112.65 112.50 112.20 112.00 111.80 111.50

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7550-55 0.7575-80 0.7600 0.7630 0.7650

Bids: 0.7520 0.7500 0.7480-85 0.7450 0.7430 0.7400

• Theresa May said she would like to see the UK after Brexit more unified, focused on the outside world

• Would not want to further disintegration of EU

• Brexit is not a rejection of the values ​​that are shared by the United Kingdom and the EU

• Great Britain does not want to build a relationship with the EU, which will be based on partial membership

• Negotiations on Brexit require compromises, mutual concessions

In the first half of today's trading the Warsaw Stock Exchange shows noticeable relative strength in relation to core markets. Undoubtedly, it is the impact of the appreciation of the zloty in relation to the dollar.

At the halfway point of today's quotations the WIG20 index was at the level of 2,021 points (-0.17%). The turnover in the segment of the largest companies was amounted to PLN 233 million.

European stock markets traded in the red due to the mining and automotive sectors. Market participants are waiting for British Prime Minister Theresa May's speech about the position of London in the negotiations on the withdrawal from the EU (Brexit), as well as the meetings of the European Central Bank, which will be held on Thursday.

The risks of a recession in the UK over the next 12 months fell to levels seen prior to the June referendum: economists estimate a probability of 20% compared to 30% in December and a record 50% in August.

The composite index of the largest companies in the region Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.4%, to 361.54 points, after falling 0.8% on Monday, which was the most significant fall since November

Price of Rio Tinto shares fell 1.3% in London trading after the publication of mining data.

The stock price of British American Tobacco has decreased by 0.3%. BAT buys Reynolds for $ 49.4 billion, enabling it to become the largest tobacco company in the world.

Meanwhile, Rolls-Royce market value jumped by 5.5%. British Engineering Holding agreed to pay 671 million pounds (over $ 800 million) to regulators in Brazil, the UK and the US as part of the settlement of corruption cases.

Deutsche Lufthansa shares rose 3.8% on reports that Etihad Airways may buy from 30% to 40% of the company.

The capitalization of Deutsche Bank rose 0.4% on rumors that the bank will refuse to pay annual bonuses.

Shares of Swiss chocolate maker Lindt rose by 6.9%, as the company was able to increase sales in Europe, Japan and Brazil..

At the moment:

FTSE 7298.26 -28.87 -0.39%

DAX 11446.39 -108.32 -0.94%

CAC 4848.14 -34.04 -0.70%

This morning, the New York futures for Brent increased 0.02% to $ 55.87 and WTI rose 0.36% to $ 52.56. Thus, the black gold prices little changed as investors are expecting output OPEC production data.

Because of the Martin Luther King Day, American Petroleum Institute will publish oil reserves later this week.

January 17

Before the Open:

UnitedHealth (UNH). Consensus EPS $2.07, Consensus Revenue $47116.42 mln.

January 18

Before the Open:

Citigroup (C). Consensus EPS $1.12, Consensus Revenue $17259.52 mln.

Goldman Sachs (GS). Consensus EPS $4.80, Consensus Revenue $7802.68 mln.

January 19

After the Close:

American Express (AXP). Consensus EPS $0.99, Consensus Revenue $7956.03 mln.

IBM (IBM). Consensus EPS $4.89, Consensus Revenue $21690.90 mln.

January 20

Before the Open:

General Electric (GE). Consensus EPS $0.46, Consensus Revenue $33668.72 mln.

Housing market indicators for November suggested a period of modest increasing demand and steady growth in price levels. House prices grew by 6.7% in the year to November, 0.3 percentage points higher than October.

According to the Bank of England's Agents' summary of business conditions, for the final quarter of 2016 (October to December) , housing market activity has recovered following a period of weakness after the EU referendum and stamp duty changes but remains weak in central London.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany has increased slightly in January 2017. The index has improved by 2.8 points compared to December, now standing at 16.6 points.

"The slight increase of the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is mainly due the improved economic situation across European countries. The fairly good preliminary figures recorded for the development of the German GDP last year, as well as for the industrial production of the eurozone in November 2016, came as a surprise to many. This improvement in expectations can thus also be seen as a leap of faith for 2017," comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach,PhD.

The annual rate of producer price inflation continued to grow in December 2016, although mainly as a result of falling prices a year ago, as growth was relatively flat on the month.

Factory gate prices (output prices) rose 2.7% on the year to December 2016 and 0.1% on the month, which was the sixth consecutive period of annual growth and the eleventh of monthly growth.

Prices for materials and fuels paid by UK manufacturers for processing (input prices) rose 15.8% on the year to December 2016 and 1.8% on the month.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 1.6% in the year to December 2016, compared with a 1.2% rise in the year to November.

The rate in December was the highest since July 2014, when it was also 1.6%.

Price movements for the majority of the broad groups of goods and services acted to increase the rate between November 2016 and December 2016.

The main contributors to the increase in the rate were rises in air fares and the price of food, along with prices for motor fuels, which fell by less than they did a year ago.

CPIH (not a National Statistic) rose by 1.7% in the year to December 2016, up from 1.4% in November.

Credit standards for loans to enterprises broadly stabilising.

Continued easing of credit terms and conditions across all loan categories.

Easing impact of TLTROs on credit standards increased.

According to the January 2017 bank lending survey (BLS), credit standards (i.e. banks' internal guidelines or loan approval criteria) for loans to enterprises tightened somewhat in net terms in the fourth quarter of 2016 (a net percentage of 3%, compared with 0% in the previous quarter), driven mainly by developments in the Netherlands. This was the first net tightening since the fourth quarter of 2013 and was broadly in line with expectations in the previous survey round.

WIG20 index opened at 2026.40 points (+0.06%)

WIG 53716.09 0.02

WIG30 2344.14 -0.08

mWIG40 4394.47 -0.03

*/ - change to previous close

The cash market in Warsaw began trading with a modest increase and at a pretty good turnover focused on the shares of KGHM, which according to our earlier expectations are losing due to falling prices on the copper market. The chart of the WIG20 index is still at a safe distance from the level of 2,000 points, although the mood in the environment is unfavorable.

After fifteen minutes of trade WIG20 index it was at 2,018 points (-0.34%).

Yesterday's session on the Warsaw market ended favorably compared to European markets where got cheaper shares of automotive companies and banks in response to the announcement of Donald Trump as to raise tariffs on cars produced in Europe and the downgrade of Italy rating.

Today, after the one-day break, to the game return the Americans, what will affect the normalization of volatility and activity in global markets. Despite the yesterday's lack of trading on Wall Street, there were some changes in the currency market and raw materials. Copper become less cheaper, what may affect the opening in Warsaw and the stronger yen has its impact on the Japanese Nikkei, which lost in the morning approx. 1.5 percent.

The key event today will be the speech of British prime minister Theresa May on Brexit. In the macro calendar there is also reading of the German ZEW index and the results of other companies in the US.

Today the Bank of Japan has published its decision to maintain its economic outlook in six of the nine regions of the country. Only 3 of the region differ from their preliminary assessment. Central Bank raised its estimate of Tohoku, Kanto-Koshinetsu and Tokai. All three regions have revised upward its estimates for private consumption. In addition, the decline in emerging economies died down a bit, which is likely to increase demand for the products of Tohoku region and Kanto-Koshinetsu. Meanwhile, the remaining six regions reported that their assessment about the pace of economic improvement remained unchanged.

According to data released today by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, industrial output, seasonally adjusted, rose in November 1.5% after flat in the previous month.

Shipments grew by 1%, which was slightly higher than the previous growth of 0.9%. At the same time, inventories fell by 1.6%, which was revised to 1.5% in the preliminary data.

On an annual basis, industrial production rose in November by 4.6%, after rising by 1.4% in the previous month. The data also showed that the capacity utilization rate increased by 3.0% on a monthly basis.

The trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.6%. Investment housing commitments rose 1.7%, while owner occupied housing commitments was flat.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 2.2%.

In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance fell 0.1% in November 2016.

In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings rose 0.7%, the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings rose 0.2%, and the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings fell 0.2%.

European stocks slumped Monday, with auto makers and banks losing ground as investors mulled policy signals coming from the U.K. and the U.S. In Frankfurt, auto makers weighed on the DAX 30 DAX, -0.64% which dropped 0.6% to end at 11,554.71. Volkswagen AG VOW3, -2.25% VLKAY, -0.91% fell 2.2%, Daimler AG DAI, -1.90% gave up 1.5%, and BMW AG BMW, -1.12% also shed 1.5%. Those moves came after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, in an interview with European newspapers, reiterated his call for a 35% import tax on cars built in Mexico that will be exported to the U.S.

Asian stocks and the pound sagged on Tuesday as investors waited for British Prime Minister Theresa May to lay out plans to exit the European Union, which traders fear will see Britain lose access to the bloc's single market. Britain will not seek a Brexit deal that leaves it "half in, half out" of the EU, May will say later in the day, according to her office, in a speech setting out her 12 priorities for upcoming divorce talks with the bloc.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0780 (2217)

$1.0745 (2213)

$1.0703 (254)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0661

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0541 (1263)

$1.0488 (2433)

$1.0422 (3270)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 53315 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3335);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 62630 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0000 (4911);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.17 versus 1.18 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 13

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2412 (334)

$1.2316 (528)

$1.2221 (222)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2115

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1987 (2202)

$1.1890 (3233)

$1.1792 (1011)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 13 is 17747 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (3018);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 13 is 21484 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3223);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.21 versus 1.25 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 13

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.