(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 50.01 -0.34%

Gold 1,256.80 +0.24%

Oil futures fell more than 1 percent after OPEC announced oil production set new highs. Such news offset optimism about the agreement, which aims to control the market glut.

Increase in the dollar index to a seven-month high also weakened demand for oil. As oil prices are tied to the dollar, a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

Later today, the American Petroleum Institute will present its assessment on US petroleum inventories last week, and tomorrow US Department of Energy wil publish crude oil inventories. This week, both will report a day later, because Monday was a federal holiday in the United States.

The cost of the November futures for US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 49.99 dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

November futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell to 51.87 dollars a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold fell slightly in the course of today's trading, helped by the strengthening US dollar. Pressure on prices also having a growing expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates in coming months.

The US Dollar Index, showing the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, traded with an increase of 0.3%. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a stronger dollar makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

Investors also await the publication of the Fed's September meeting minutes hoping to get signals about the pace of rate. Protocols are likely to confirm that the rate hike in December seems likely, but also to show that rates are likely to remain low in the future. Such a scenario is ambiguous for the dollar,.

According to the futures market, a hike in December has 69.5% probability.

Investors tend to buy gold as a hedge against political and financial uncertainty. Proof of this are the messages that the gold reserves in funds in general have stabilized this week above 57 million ounces.

The cost of the October futures for gold on the COMEX fell to $ 1253.0 per ounce.

Crude Oil Price Movements

The OPEC Reference Basket slipped slightly in September to $42.89/b, down 21¢. ICE Brent ended up 8¢ at $47.24/b and NYMEX WTI increased 43¢ to $45.23/b. Crude oil prices were supported by efforts to address excess global supplies and consecutive draws in US crude stockpiles. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed to $2.01/b.

World Economy

World economic growth remains unchanged at 2.9% for 2016 and 3.1% for 2017. The OECD growth forecast remains at 1.6% and 1.7% for 2016 and 2017, respectively. Forecasts for China and India are also unchanged at 6.5% and 7.5% for 2016 and 6.1% and 7.2% for 2017. Brazil and Russia are forecast to grow by 0.4% and 0.7% in 2017, following contractions of 3.4% and 0.6% this year.

World Oil Demand

World oil demand in 2016 is seen increasing by 1.24 mb/d to average 94.40 mb/d, after a marginal upward revision of around 10 tb/d from the September MOMR, mainly to reflect the latest data. Positive revisions were primarily a result of higher-than-expected demand in the Other Asia region, while downward revisions were a result of lower-than-expected performance from OECD America. In 2017, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.15 mb/d, unchanged from the September MOMR, to average 95.56 mb/d.

World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to contract by 0.68 mb/d, following a downward revision of around 70 tb/d from the September MOMR to average 56.30 mb/d. This is mainly due to base line revisions. In 2017, non-OPEC supply was revised up slightly by 40 tb/d to show growth of 0.24 mb/d to average 56.54 mb/d, mainly due to new projects coming on stream in Russia. OPEC NGLs are expected to average 6.43 mb/d in 2017, an increase of 0.15 mb/d over the current year. OPEC crude production, according to secondary sources, increased by 0.22 mb/d in September to average 33.39 mb/d.

This morning, the New York futures for Brent rose 0.45% to $ 51.02. and crude oil futures for WTI increased in value by 0.63% to $ 52.74 per barrel.

Today, the American Petroleum Institute will publish the evaluation of crude oil and petroleum products in the United States. Tomorrow the US Department of Energy will report. This week, both will report a day later, because Monday was a federal holiday in the United States.

Last week, US crude oil inventories fell, which led to an increase in forecasts about the demand.