The US dollar strengthened against the euro, recovering all the ground lost in the first half of today's session. The probable cause of this trend are the technical factors and changes in risk appetite. Market participants are also preparing for the performance of Fed Yellen in Congress - on Tuesday it will submit semi-annual report in the Senate, and on Wednesday - in the House of Representatives. Investors are waiting for her comments on the timing of interest rate rises. Today futures on interest rates Fed indicate that the probability of a rate hike in July is 10%. The chances of an increase in rates are estimated at 37% in September.

In addition, the course of trading influenced the Bundesbank monthly report, which stated that the ECB's asset purchase program could support the euro zone economy, but the ECB must normalize policy once inflation returns to the target level. The Bundesbank said that its economic model confirms the experience of other currency areas, according to which QE can have a stimulating effect on demand and inflation, however, are associated with exposure to large uncertainties. Bundesbank reiterated its concerns related to the program of QE, noting that it weakens the government budgetary discipline eurozone countries, may lead to risky behavior and reduce the profits of banks.

The focus of the application were also a member of the Governing Council of the ECB Joseph Makucha. "Out of Britain from the European Union could lead to political instability inside the block and slow down the further integration of the referendum may also lead to financial market volatility, but the ECB will act to reduce the volatility of the market, as has been done many times in the past." - Said Makuch.

The British pound rose more than 2 percent against the US dollar, reaching a peak on May 31 as the results of surveys signaled to strengthen among the British desire to remain part of the European Union. The survey company Survation revealed that EU membership voted 45% of voters and 42% of the vote for the exit. The median forecast on the results of six recent public opinion polls have shown a 50 percent probability of a positive or negative outcome of the referendum, while the bookmakers betting in the UK out of the EU have fallen sharply compared with last week. Now bookmakers estimate the chances Brekzita in 31% versus 44% in the middle of last week.

Overall, this week could be very unsaturated in terms of economic data for the UK, if not the historic referendum. Voting in a referendum will end on Thursday at 20:00 GMT, and the results will be announced at 02:00 GMT on Friday. If the majority of citizens will vote for secession leaders of the European countries and organizations planning to hold a series of emergency meetings to calm markets and prevent a domino effect in the weaker economies.

EUR/USD 1.1200 (EUR 202m) 1.1275 (200m) 1.1295-1.1300 (1.27bln) 1.1470 (612m)

USD/JPY 103.00 (USD 280m) 104.00 (515m) 105.00 (797m)

GBP/USD 1.4350 (200m) 1.4700 (244m)

EUR/GBP 0.7740 (300m)

AUD/USD 0.7350 (AUD 490m)

USD/CAD 1.2705-06 (USD 3.73bln)

EUR/USD

Offers : 1.1375-80 1.1400 1.1420 1.1450 1.1480 1.1500

Bids: 1.1325-30 1.1300 1.1280-85 1.1250 1.1220-25 1.1200

GBP/USD

Offers : 1.4585 1.4600-05 1.4625 1.4650-60 1.4680-85 1.4700 1.4725 1.4745-50

Bids: 1.4545-50 1.4530-35 1.4500-05 1.4485 1.4465 1.4450 1.4430 1.4400 1.4350-60

EUR/GBP

Offers : 0.7800 0.7825-30 0.7850 0.7885 0.7900 0.7930 0.7950 0.7980-85 0.8000

Bids: 0.7765 0.7750 0.7730 0.7700 0.7670-75 0.7650 0.7630 0.7600

EUR/JPY

Offers : 118.80 119.00 119.20 119.50 119.85 120.00 120.30 120.50

Bids: 118.45-50 118.20 118.00 117.80 117.50-60 117.30 117.00

USD/JPY

Offers : 104.80 105.00 105.30-35 105.50 105.80 106.00 106.50 106.85 107.00

Bids: 104.45-50 104.20 104.00 103.80-85 103.50 103.25 103.00 102.75-80 102.50 102.00

AUD/USD

Offers : 0.7485-90 0.7500 0.7520 0.7550 0.7570 0.7600

Bids: 0.7420 0.7400 0.7385 0.7370 0.7350 0.7320-25 0.7300

Stock markets in Europe rallied due mostly to the recovery of the banking sector, as renewed hope that the UK will decide to stay in the EU, boosting investors appetite for risk.

The composite index of the largest companies in the region Euro Stoxx 600 rose by 3.3% - to 336.63 points.

As the poll showed, held June 18 by Survation, 45% of respondents were in favor, to maintain membership in the EU, 42% - against. Prior to this, the data indicated that Brexit supporters camp wins, but the death of a British Member of Parliament Joe Cox forced politicians to suspend the election campaign that changed the balance of power.

Meanwhile bookmakers estimate the chances of the UK exit from the EU to 31% against 44% in the middle of last week.

Producer prices in Germany declined at a slower pace in May, Destatis data showed.

Shares of Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds gained 7.5% and 5.8%, respectively, amid signs that Britain decides to stay in the EU.

The capitalization of the Italian bank UniCredit rose 4.9%. Italian media reported that the new CEO of the bank may be the former Minister of Economic Development, Infrastructure and Transport Corrado Passera.

Spanish BBVA Bank increased its market value by 2.7% on news that the Bank approved a strategic development plan in March this year, not informing the market participants. The plan aims to increase the profitability and efficiency of the bank.

Volkswagen AG's stock price rose by 3.1%. According to informed sources, the automaker intends to submit to regulators in the United States plan to eliminate violations in vehicles with diesel engines until the end of this month. The plan calls for expenditures of about $ 10 billion.

The market value of Bayer AG increased by 2.2%. According to rumors, the company is in talks with investment banks about a possible sale of its business for the production of radiological equipment. Cost could be around $ 3 billion.

Share price Adidas AG increased by 2.2% from the figures that the sporting goods manufacturer has signed another four-year sponsorship deal with the national football team of Germany.

Allianz shares rose 3.2% after the German insurer announced the acquisition of Zurich Assurances Maroc, a branch of Zurich Insurance Company in Morocco.

Taylor Wimpey shares soared 5.4% after Deutsche Bank analysts confirmed their rating to "buy."

At this moment

FTSE 6182.44 161.35 2.68%

DAX 9952.37 321.01 3.33%

CAC 4328.91 135.08 3.22%

According to Goldman Sachs markets remain focused on the UK referendum and its implications for asset prices. In the past two weeks, 'Brexit risk premia' have been priced into UK and foreign assets, and we expect risk to continue to underperform till June 23.

Past the date of the referendum, asset prices are likely to move sharply regardless of the outcome of the referendum: in the event of a 'Remain' vote, we would expect markets to price out the 'Brexit risk premia'; following a 'Leave' vote prices would most likely incorporate the additional uncertainty that such a vote would generate

Following a 'Leave' vote, we would consider long positions in currencies that, in our view, are structurally stronger. For example, the CHF and NOK offer compelling upside structurally and tactically, as we think that the SNB and Norges Bank are less likely to respond aggressively to CHF and NOK strength.

Among the currencies that are likely to underperform, our analysis suggests that, cumulative over six months, Sterling could weaken by about 11% and the Euro by 4% in trade-weighted terms versus a basket of major DM currencies if uncertainty increases as much as it did after the Lehman collapse. We also like downside in the AUD and NZD, where our economists expect more policy easing in H2 even in a 'Remain' vote scenario. In the event of a 'Leave' vote, the currency pairs that we think should depreciate the most are GBP/CHF and EUR/CHF.

If voters decide that the UK should continue to be a member of the European Union, we would anticipate a strong appreciation of Sterling, which is also implicitly assumed in the Bank of England's May Inflation Report. For all G10 currencies, in the event of a 'Remain' vote our recent FX forecasts would remain our base case.

Tactically, EUR/USD would likely see a decent upside move in response to a 'Remain' vote, and contrary to our directional bullish view on the USD. After the latest FOMC meeting, our economists adjusted the subjective probabilities for a rate increase at the next two meetings, lowering July to 25% (from 35%) and raising September to 40% (from 35%). Although the probability we assign to a Fed hike in July remains higher than that priced by the fed funds future market, it is unlikely that investors will reprice such probability significantly to the upside, at least until the next US employment report, which will be released on July 8.

However, the EUR should weaken versus Sterling. When EUR/GBP stood at 0.76, we quantified the 'Brexit' risk premium at around 5-8 big figures. Since then, EUR/GBP has moved up almost another 3 big figures. Hence, in a 'Remain' scenario EUR/GBP could move sharply towards our 12-month forecast of 0.70.

In addition to the events mentioned in the economic calendar:

- 10:00 GMT the Bundesbank Monthly Report.

- 13:00 GMT the ECB member Yves Mersch will make a speech.

- 16:30 GMT Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Sabine Lautenshleger, deliver a speech.

- 23:25 GMT RBA Assistant Governor, Guy Debel, deliver a speech.

Stocks, sterling and oil soared at the start of the week after polls suggested the U.K. was more likely to vote to remain in the European Union in Thursday's referendum than previously expected.

The Stoxx Europe 600 jumped 3.4% late morning, extending Friday's momentum, while the British pound surged 2.1% against the dollar to $1.4653, on track for its highest settlement since May.

Futures pointed to a 1.3% opening gain for the S&P 500. Changes in futures markets don't necessarily reflect market moves after the opening bell.

"We're in this sort of frenzied period where Brexit is front and center, " said Bob Doll, senior portfolio manager at Nuveen Asset Management.

A survey published on Sunday showed that 45% of respondents backed the U.K. staying in the trade bloc, compared with 42% in favor of leaving. The poll-of-polls, averaging the last six polls in the U.K. vote, returned to 50/50, suggesting growing momentum for the "remain camp" in the June 23 referendum.

This morning, New York crude oil futures WTI rose by 1.61% to $ 49.34 per barrel. Crude oil futures for Brent rose by 1.73% to $ 50.02 per barrel. Thus, the black gold is gaining so far backed by the weakening of the dollar and reduce fears of a possible withdrawal of Britain from the European Union. Oil is rising, despite an increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States the third consecutive week with production growth. The number of drilling rigs increased by 9 units for the week ended June 17 according to Baker Hughes.

In a speech at the Faculty of Economics at Keio University, BoJ governor said that the aim of QQE is to overcome the prolonged deflation that has gripped Japan. Even if this deflation has been mild, the fact that it has continued for more than 15 years means that its cumulative costs have been extremely large. Looked at in terms of the price level, an annual inflation rate of minus 0.3 percent over a period of 15 years implies that the price level will fall by around 5 percent, but an annual inflation rate of 2 percent over a period of 15 years means that the price level will rise by around 35 percent. Therefore, he thinks it is clear that even mild deflation, if it continues for a prolonged period, will have a large impact on the medium- to long-term decision-making of economic entities.

EUR/USD 1.1200 (EUR 202m) 1.1275 (200m) 1.1295-1.1300 (1.27bln) 1.1470 (612m)

USD/JPY 103.00 (USD 280m) 104.00 (515m) 105.00 (797m)

GBP/USD 1.4350 (200m) 1.4700 (244m)

EUR/GBP 0.7740 (300m)

AUD/USD 0.7350 (AUD 490m)

USD/CAD 1.2705-06 (USD 3.73bln)

In May 2016 the index of producer prices for industrial products fell by 2.7% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In April 2016 the annual rate of change all over had been -3.1%.

Compared with the preceding month April 2016 the overall index rose by 0.4% in May 2016 (+0.1% in April and unchanged in March 2016).

In May 2016 energy prices decreased by 8.0% compared with May 2015, prices of intermediate goods by 2.3% and prices of non-durable consumer goods by 0.2%. In contrast prices of capital goods rose by 0.6% and prices of durable consumer goods by 1.3%.

The overall index disregarding energy decreased by 0.8% compared with May 2015 and rose slightly by 0.2% compared with April 2016.

The British pound was up against the US dollar and Japanese yen, as concerns over the possible withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU declined.

Referendum campain was suspended on Thursday and Friday after the assassination of parliamentarian Joe Cox, who is a representative of the opposition Labour Party, in favor of maintaining the UK as part of trade and political bloc.

The British pound rose, because, according to investors, campain suspension will negatively affect the position of the EU exit supporters who have or had good support among the population, based on the results of las weeks polls.

"Investors are quick to realize that the death of Joe Cox has become a new factor in the situation, while a growing number of people acted in support of the release of the trade and political bloc," - analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman wrote.

Latest polls published on weekend show the remain camp in lead and the gbp pairs gaped up at the opening.

According to betting company Betfair Group Ltd., the likelihood that the majority of Britons would vote to leave the EU on June 23 is now below 30%, after 40% before the attack on the MP.

On the Gbp/Usd chart we see a nicely done accumulation phase of buy orders in the 1.42-1.41 area followed by a profit release phase, in which we are now.

June 20 Sterling rallied early on Monday as momentum swung in favour for Britain to remain in the European Union just days ahead of a referendum, helping underpin risk sentiment which in turn weighed on the safe-haven yen.

The pound climbed 0.9 percent to $1.4483, extending a recovery from last week's two-month trough of $1.4013. It jumped 1.7 percent to 151.75 yen, pulling well away from a three-year trough of 145.34 set on Thursday.

Investors took heart after three of six opinion polls published over the weekend showed a shift towards keeping Britain in the EU, but the June 23 vote still looked too close to call.

Indicating a general pick-up in risk appetite, U.S. stock futures rose 0.9 percent, suggesting a positive open on Wall Street later in the day.

As a result, the yen dipped across the board - a move that may help ease worries about the strength in the currency.

On Friday, Finance Minister Taro Aso said he was deeply concerned about "one-sided, rapid and speculative" currency moves and would respond urgently if needed - a hint at possible yen-selling market intervention.

The dollar climbed 0.6 percent to 104.68 yen, while the euro put on 1.1 percent to 118.72 yen.

Against the greenback, the common currency edged up 0.5 percent to $1.1333. The dollar index eased 0.4 percent to 93.825.

The Australian dollar, usually sold off in times of heightened risk aversion, gained 0.4 percent to $0.7422 . It rose 0.9 percent on the yen to 77.67.

Analysts warned there is little conviction in markets and moves could easily reverse if sentiment turned negative.

"Price action seemed very tentative everywhere, reflecting a mild trimming of ultra-cautious positions ahead of this week's Brexit referendum," analysts at ANZ wrote in a note to clients.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair was trading in the $ 1.1310-55

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair is trading in the range of $ 1.4435-1.4560

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair was trading in range Y104.40-60

Based on Reuters materials

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1475 (2826)

$1.1434 (2069)

$1.1402 (720)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1374

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1261 (414)

$1.1228 (2353)

$1.1182 (1608)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 8 is 34201 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3857);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 8 is 84025 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0900 (16247);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 2.46 versus 2.42 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 17

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4818 (1960)

$1.4723 (882)

$1.4628 (1289)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4590

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4453 (589)

$1.4357 (703)

$1.4261 (450)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 8 is 20683 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5000 (3473);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 8 is 39311 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4100 (3289);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.90 versus 1.90 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 17

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1276 +0,41%

GBP/USD $1,4357 +1,03%

USD/CHF Chf0,9594 -0,56%

USD/JPY Y104,14 -0,16%

EUR/JPY Y117,44 +0,25%

GBP/JPY Y149,55 +0,88%

AUD/USD $0,7392 +0,34%

NZD/USD $0,7055 +0,04%

USD/CAD C$1,2892 -0,52%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Finally) April 111.1

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Finally) April 93.3

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) May 0.1% 0.3%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) May -3.1% -2.8%

12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m April -1.0% 0.9%

23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes