Noticias del mercado

20 septiembre 2016
  • 16:41

    If The Fed Disappoints: USD/JPY Into 100, AUD/USD Into 0.7650, EUR/USD Into 1.1250 - BNPP

    "We think the likelihood of a Fed rate hike remains considerably higher than market pricing (20%) and we remain broadly bullish on the USD ahead of the Wednesday meeting.

    Our economists continue to forecast the Fed delivering a 25bp 'dovish' hike, cushioning its delivery with reassurances about gradual tightening going forward. However, even a 'dovish' hike would show the market that the Fed are willing to tighten even when very little is priced in and hence the premium attached to all upcoming meetings would need to re-price higher. With the market short the USD (-13 according to BNPP FX Positioning on a -/+ 50 scale), we expect to see a significant strengthening of the USD if the Fed delivers.

    If the Fed does elect to leave policy unchanged, the USD is likely to take a leg lower with USDJPY attempting to test 100, AUDUSD 0.7650 and EURUSD 1.1250.

    However, we would expect the accompanying message to keep a December hike in play (currently priced at 60-65%) and hence we would not expect the USD sell-off to extend too far after the initial adjustment. We continue to recommend long USD vs AUD, EUR and JPY via options".

    Copyright © 2016 BNP Paribas™, eFXnews™

  • 16:12

    NZ Change in GDT Price Index: 1.7% (prev 7.70%) - Livesquawk

  • 15:45

    Option expiries for today's 10:00 ET NY cut

    EURUSD: 1.1000 (EUR 500m) 1.1030 (1.17bln) 1.1200 (728m) 1.1250 (493m) 1.1300 (297m)

    USDJPY: 100.00 (USD 433m) 100.75 (500m) 101.30 (250m) 101.50 (455m) 102.00 (412m) 102.40-50 (640m) 103.00 (1.27bln)

    NZDUSD 0.7300 (NZD 240m) 0.7315 (181m) 0.7330-50 (350m)

  • 14:33

    Building permits and housing starts from US disappoint

    The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for August 2016:

    BUILDING PERMITS

    Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,139,000. This is 0.4 percent (±1.6%) below the revised July rate of 1,144,000 and is 2.3 percent (±1.5%) below the August 2015 estimate of 1,166,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 737,000; this is 3.7 percent (±3.0%) above the revised July figure of 711,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 370,000 in August.

    HOUSING STARTS

    Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,142,000. This is 5.8 percent (±9.7%)* below the revised July estimate of 1,212,000, but is 0.9 percent (±12.5%) above the August 2015 rate of 1,132,000. Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 722,000; this is 6.0 percent (±8.2%)* below the revised July figure of 768,000.

    The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 403,000.

    HOUSING COMPLETIONS

    Privately-owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,043,000. This is 3.4 percent (±10.9%) below the revised July estimate of 1,080,000, but is 8.3 percent (±11.8%)* above the August 2015 rate of 963,000. Single-family housing completions in August were at a rate of 752,000; this is 0.3 percent (±10.2%)* below the revised July rate of 754,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 283,000.

    .

  • 14:30

    U.S.: Housing Starts, August 1142 (forecast 1191)

  • 14:30

    U.S.: Building Permits, August 1139 (forecast 1170)

  • 14:29

    Fitch may raise the credit rating of the Russian Federation if reducing costs and convincing fiscal policy

    MOSCOW, September 20. / TASS /. International rating agency Fitch may increase the credit rating of the Russian Federation onreduction of budget expenditures and convincing medium-term fiscal policy. This is stated in a release from the agency.

    According to Fitch experts, the risks to the long-term credit rating of the Russian Federation in foreign currency held at the level of "BBB-" with a "negative outlook", is now focused on the domestic debt. In addition, in the event of failure of the Russian Federation to recover from the recession and significant deviations from the macro-economic and budgetary purposes, the consequences for Russia will be negative.

    "Further commitment to cost containment and the implementation of a credible medium-term fiscal policy can lead to a positive rating action," - said in a release from the agency.

    At the same time, in Fitch's assessment, budget spending ahead of presidential elections in Russia in March 2018 will be less severe than in 2014-2015.

  • 14:04

    High economic growth is impossible without innovation - Dvorkovich

    High rates of economic growth are not possible without innovation. This opinion was expressed at the roundtable on the IASP forum by the Vice Prime Minister of The Russian Federation, Arkady Dvorkovich.

    "The economy that does not invest in innovation can not be sustained", - he said.

    According to the vice-premier, innovative industrial development does not lead to job losses - on the contrary, Russian innovations contribute to the creation of new jobs.

    Talking about what is more important - tax measures or innovation environment for the innovation process, Dvorkovich said that the environment plays a fundamental role, and then preferential tax system.

  • 14:01

    Orders

    EUR/USD

    Offers 1.1220-25 1.1250-55 1.1270 1.1285 1.1300

    Bids 1.1180 1.1165 1.1145-50 1.1125 1.1100 1.1085 1.1050


    GBP/USD

    Offers 1.3070 1.3085 1.3100 1.3125-30 1.3150 1.3185 1.3200

    Bids 1.3025-30 1.3000 1.2980 1.2940-50 1.2900 1.2880 1.2850


    EUR/GBP

    Offers 0.8600 0.8625-30 0.8650 0.8700

    Bids 0.8565 0.8550 0.8525-30 0.8500 0.8480-85 0.8450


    EUR/JPY

    Offers 114.25-30 114.50 114.85 115.00 115.20-25 115.50

    Bids 113.70 113.50 113.20 113.00 112.80 112.50 112.35 112.00


    USD/JPY

    Offers 101.85 102.00 102.20-25 102.50-55 102.75-80 103.00

    Bids 101.50 101.20 101.00 100.80 100.50 100.30 100.00


    AUD/USD

    Offers 0.7580 0.7600 0.7630 0.7655-60

    Bids 0.7500 0.7485 0.7465 0.7445-50

  • 13:01
  • 12:20

    Improved forecasts for Swiss economic growth in 2016

    The Swiss economy embarked on a steady growth path in recent months and will continue to gain momentum despite risks such as the increased uncertainty created by Brexit. This was stated by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), while improving forecasts for 2016.

    The government agency has raised its forecast for GDP growth this year to 1.5 percent from 1.4 in June. However, the forecast for next year was maintained at 1.8 per cent.

    It is expected continued moderate recovery in the euro area and in the rest of the world. Recall, the Swiss economy grew by 0.6 percent in the second quarter. "According to our estimates, the current set of circumstances will lead to positive consequences for Switzerland as higher volume of foreign trade and the gradual stabilization of the economic recovery in the country", - said the agency.

    With the improvement in growth, SECO expects that unemployment will gradually slow down. Experts expect that the unemployment rate will be 3.3 percent this year and will be kept stable in 2017.

  • 12:16

    SAFE: capital outflow from China has slowed down in August

    China's State Administration of foreign exchange control stated that the capital outflow from China slowed in August, citing the fact that banks sold a smaller amount of foreign currency on the market during the month.

    The regulator said that the net sale of foreign currency by banks to their customers was in August CNY21.7 billion. This was the lowest amount of currency sales this year. Recall, at the end of July net sales amounted to CNY131.9 billion.

    The total volume of sales, including through transactions with clients and proprietary trading departments of banks, was at the level of $ 9.5 billion. SAFE said it was the lowest rate since July 2015 and by 70% compared with the previous month.

    SAFE also noted that market participants were willing to sell their foreign exchange earnings to banks in August - 59.2% of customers sold their foreign exchange earnings, compared with 58.3% in July. Net receipts from foreign loans of Chinese companies accounted for $ 6.1 billion. In August, which was significantly higher than the average from May to July ($ 700 million).

    According to SAFE, now the economy is stable, and the mood of Forex market participants is stable, which will contribute to a more balanced supply and demand in the currency market.

  • 10:21

    Option expiries for today's 10:00 ET NY cut

    EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR 500m) 1.1030 (1.17bln) 1.1200 (728m) 1.1250 (493m) 1.1300 (297m)

    USD/JPY: 100.00 (USD 433m) 100.75 (500m) 101.30 (250m) 101.50 (455m) 102.00 (412m) 102.40-50 (640m) 103.00 (1.27bln)

    NZD/USD 0.7300 (NZD 240m) 0.7315 (181m) 0.7330-50 (350m)

  • 10:15

    USD: The Time Has Come For A Fed 's Hike - Barclays

    "The time has come The long-awaited September FOMC meeting has finally arrived, and we retain our out-of-consensus call for a rate hike on Wednesday.

    Mixed economic data last week, including disappointing retail sales amid a solidifying CPI, coupled with dovish commentary by Board members Brainard and Tarullo, have reduced market expectations of a hike, with a 20% probability priced in. We see the likelihood of a hike as higher than market pricing, and there is scope for material USD strength if the Fed delivers.

    If the committee instead stays on hold, more hawkish members will need to be placated with stronger language that points to a December rate increase. We would expect limited USD potential downside if this is the case.

    The market will also pay attention to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections. We foresee a 25-50bp decline to the appropriate policy path, the ''dot plot''. We think the median member sees conditions as likely to support only one hike this year, and the appropriate policy path is likely to decrease by 25bp in parallel in 2017 and 2018. Given the very shallow rate path already priced in, the downward revisions should not have a meaningful effect, in our view.

    Finally, we expect a 25bp shift down in the long-term fed".

    Copyright © 2016 Barclays Capital, eFXnews™

  • 09:24

    OPEC chief confident on informal accord in Algiers: Repubblica

  • 09:23

    USD weakness tone of the day ahead of BoJ and FOMC?

  • 08:29

    Sep BoJ: Risks Now Firmly Skewed In The Direction of Disappointment And A Stronger JPY - Deutsche Bank

    "Past price action supports the idea that IF the BOJ were to pursue an 'operation twist' to steepen the JGB yield curve, via lower 2y yield with higher 10y yields, it will initially work in the direction of a slightly weaker JPY and support the Nikkei, and not contradict the BOJ's other objectives to support Japan's financial sector.

    Twist operations however should not be directed at FX goals. Since 2009, an average week where the curve twists steeper is 3bps for 10y - 2yr JGBs, and this has only been associated with a 0.12% depreciation in the JPY TWI. Curve manipulation should get filed in the 'fiddling around the edges' folder, since the overall impact on the price of money will be negligible and will not change Japan's growth and inflation profile meaningfully.

    The intra-week response of a weaker yen in the face of an engineered steeper curve would almost certainly wear off quickly with the currency soon dominated by other factors.

    The BOJ policy assessment is bound to provide at least a few intriguing insights, but all of this should get filed in the 'fiddling around the edges' folder, since the overall impact on the price of money will be negligible and will not change Japan's growth and inflation profile meaningfully.

    For all the earlier hope that the Fed and BOJ were both going to support USD/JPY, the risks are now firmly skewed in the direction of disappointment and a stronger yen".

    Copyright © 2016 DB, eFXnews™

  • 08:26

    RBA meeting minutes: the prices of Australia's commodity exports had increased since the previous meeting

    "Members commenced their discussion of domestic economic conditions by noting that the prices of Australia's commodity exports had increased since the previous meeting and were around 30 per cent above the lows of early this year. Further reductions in production of bulk commodities by high-cost producers in China had contributed to these price increases. Reflecting the rise in commodity prices since earlier in the year, the terms of trade had increased in the June quarter.

    The ABS capital expenditure survey and measures of work done on non-residential construction indicated that mining investment had continued to fall in the June quarter, in line with the forecast presented in the August Statement on Monetary Policy. The estimate of nominal investment intentions from the capital expenditure survey implied a further large decline in mining investment in 2016/17, in line with earlier expectations. However, the peak subtraction from GDP growth was still expected to have occurred in 2015/16 and members noted that there had been some signs of an improvement in sentiment in parts of the mining industry.

    Growth in Australia's major trading partners had been a little below its decade average over the first half of 2016, which was in line with expectations at the time of the August Statement on Monetary Policy. Conditions in the global industrial sector remained subdued but looked to have stabilised recently. GDP growth in the major advanced economies had been close to, or above, trend over the past year and labour market outcomes had continued to improve. Globally, inflation remained low and below most central banks' targets. Members noted, however, that the weighted average of core inflation for the economies from which Australia sources its imports had been around its longer-term average and that movements in Australian dollar import prices had been dominated by changes in the exchange rate rather than global price developments".

  • 08:22

    Former BOJ board Shirai: chances high that BOJ chooses rate cut over more bond buys

    • chances high that BOJ chooses rate cut over more bond buys

    • cutting rates has smaller costs than asset purchases

    • expects asset purchases to get harder for BOJ to make

    • better for BOJ not to make monetary base target a range

    • its not right for a central bank to make target value

    • BOJ should target 1% inflation first

    • inevitable for BOJ to delay timing of hitting CPI goal

    • hard for foreign bonds to be accepted as BOJ tool

    *via forexlive

  • 08:15

    Australian house price index rose less then forecast in Q2

    • The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities rose 2.0% in the June quarter 2016. The index rose 4.1% through the year to the June quarter 2016.

    • The capital city residential property price indexes rose in Sydney (+2.8%), Melbourne (+2.7%), Brisbane (+1.1%), Canberra (+2.2%), Adelaide (+0.8%) and Hobart (+0.7%) and fell in Perth (-1.2%) and Darwin (-2.4%).

    • Annually, residential property prices rose in Melbourne (+8.2%), Canberra (+6.0%), Hobart (+4.9%), Brisbane (+4.3%), Sydney (+3.6%) and Adelaide (+3.5%) and fell in Darwin (-6.5%) and Perth (-4.8%).

  • 08:15

    Options levels on tuesday, September 20, 2016:

    EUR/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.1311 (2548)

    $1.1268 (1037)

    $1.1235 (425)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.1171

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.1132 (3979)

    $1.1101 (3281)

    $1.1065 (6121)

    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 7 is 35434 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1400 (4636);

    - Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 7 is 38578 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (6121);

    - The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.09 versus 1.11 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 19

    GBP/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.3303 (1359)

    $1.3205 (1126)

    $1.3109 (1000)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.3033

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.2992 (3764)

    $1.2895 (868)

    $1.2797 (1703)

    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 7 is 22334 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3450 (2735);

    - Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 7 is 22470 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3764);

    - The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 1.00 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 19

    * - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

    ** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

  • 08:12

    Swiss trade balance surplus declines

    Adjusted exports rose by 7.0% ( real terms : + 1.2% ) and imports by 8.4% ( real terms : + 5.1% ) . Again was the foreign trade development dedicated to the chemical-pharmaceutical products . The trade balance recorded a surplus of chf. 3.0 billion . Exports grew in August 2016 corrected for working days - the reporting month scored a working day more than the same month last year - 7% ( in real terms : + 1.2% ) . Compared to July 2016 exports , seasonally adjusted fell slightly ( - 0.8 % ).

  • 08:08

    German producer prices down 0.1% in August

    • In August 2016 the index of producer prices for industrial products fell by 1.6% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In July 2016 the annual rate of change all over had been -2.0%.

    • Compared with the preceding month July 2016 the overall index fell by 0.1% in August 2016 (+0.2% in July and +0.4% in June).

    • In August 2016 energy prices decreased by 5.5% compared with August 2015, prices of intermediate goods fell by 1.6%. In contrast prices of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.7%, prices of capital goods by 0.6% and prices of durable consumer goods by 1.2%.

    • The overall index disregarding energy decreased by 0.3% compared with August 2015 and remained unchanged compared with July 2016.

  • 08:01

    Switzerland: Trade Balance, August 3.02 (forecast 3.27)

  • 03:30

    Australia: House Price Index (QoQ), Quarter II 2.0% (forecast 2.5%)

  • 00:28

    Currencies. Daily history for Sep 19’2016:

    (pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

    EUR/USD $1,1174 +0,17%

    GBP/USD $1,3032 +0,24%

    USD/CHF Chf0,9799 -0,02%

    USD/JPY Y101,83 -0,45%

    EUR/JPY Y113,80 -0,25%

    GBP/JPY Y132,7 -0,20%

    AUD/USD $0,7537 +0,60%

    NZD/USD $0,7301 +0,51%

    USD/CAD C$1,3197 -0,10%

Enfoque del mercado
Cuotas
Símbolo Bid Ask Tiempo
AUDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
XAGEUR
XAGUSD
XAUUSD
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