(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

01:15 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks

01:35 Japan Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 51.6 52.1

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 50.7 50.5

04:50 Australia RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks

08:00 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 47.6 48.9

08:00 France Services PMI (Preliminary) March 53.4 53.1

08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 51.1 51.5

08:30 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) March 54.7 55.0

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 51.0 51.6

09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) March 53.7 53.9

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) February -3.7% +1.6%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) February -14.2%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) February -0.5% -0.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) February +0.5%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m February -0.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y February +1.1% +0.9%

09:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y February +1.2%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m February -0.9%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y February +0.3% +0.1%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y February +1.4% +1.3%

12:30 U.S. Housing Price Index, y/y January +5.4%

12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m February -0.7% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y February -0.1% -0.1%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m February +0.2% +0.1%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y February +1.6% +1.6%

13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m January +0.8%

13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 55.1 54.9

14:00 Belgium Business Climate March -8.3 -7.5

14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index March 0 2

14:00 U.S. New Home Sales February 481 472

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories March +10.5

21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln February 56 355

The Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Monday that the Fed will raise its interest rate before the end of the year.

"A smooth path upward in the federal funds rate will almost certainly not be realized, because, inevitably, the economy will encounter shocks", Fischer noted.

He pointed that when the Fed starts to hike its interest rate, interest rate could move "up and down" depending on the economy's performance.

Germany's Bundesbank released its monthly report on Monday. The central bank expects a strong growth of German economy in the first quarter of year.

"There are also signs of a continued vigorous upward economic movement in the second quarter," Bundesbank added.

The central bank noted that private consumption and the savings rate climbed in the fourth quarter of 2014.

"The currency union ought to be able to withstand the extreme case of the insolvency of a member state," Bundesbank also said.

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies after the weaker-than-expected U.S. existing home sales figures. Sales of existing homes rose 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million in February from 4.82 million in January. Analysts had expected an increase to 4.91 million units.

The euro rose against the U.S. dollar after comments by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi. He told the European Parliament in Brussels on Monday that the economic growth in the Eurozone "is gaining momentum" due to in particular falling oil prices, higher external demand, easy financing conditions and a weaker euro.

Draghi noted that the central bank monitors closely any potential risks to financial stability in the Eurozone, and added that "currently these risks are contained".

Eurozone's consumer confidence index rose to -3.7 in March from -6.7 in February. Analysts had expected the index to climb to -6.0.

Germany's Bundesbank released its monthly report on Monday. The central bank expects a strong growth of German economy in the first quarter of year. "There are also signs of a continued vigorous upward economic movement in the second quarter," Bundesbank added.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar. The CBI industrial order books balance dropped to zero in March from +10% in February.

Analysts expected the CBI industrial order books balance to decrease to +9%.

The decline was driven by a stronger pound and a weak economy in the Eurozone.

Volume of output for the next three months fell to +22 in March, down from +25 in February.

The New Zealand dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the kiwi rose against the greenback in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar increased against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the Aussie traded higher against the greenback in the absence of any major economic reports from Australia.

The Japanese yen traded higher against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the yen traded higher against the greenback in the absence of any major economic reports from Japan.

The European Central Bank (ECB) said on Monday that it purchased 26.3 billion euros of bonds in 10 days.

The central bank started its bond-buying programme on March 09. The ECB aims to purchase 60 billion euros of bonds per month until September 2016.

The ECB noted that its covered bond purchase programme totalled almost 60 billion euros as of March 20, while its asset-backed securities (ABS) programme totalled 4.008 billion euros.

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi told the European Parliament in Brussels on Monday that the economic growth in the Eurozone "is gaining momentum" due to in particular falling oil prices, higher external demand, easy financing conditions and a weaker euro.

Draghi noted that the central bank monitors closely any potential risks to financial stability in the Eurozone, and added that "currently these risks are contained".

The ECB president pointed out that consumer inflation in the Eurozone will remain very low or might decline below zero due to falling oil prices. Inflation is expected to rise towards the end of the year, he said.

Draghi pointed out that the pace of bond purchases is "on track", and there are no signs that there will not be enough bonds to purchase.

He also said that Greece and its lenders should continue bailout talks. Draghi believes that talks will be successful.

The National Association of Realtors released existing homes sales figures in the U.S. on Monday. Sales of existing homes rose 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million in February from 4.82 million in January.

Analysts had expected an increase to 4.91 million units.

The NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said that sales still underperform, but house prices continue to rise.

EUR/USD: $1.0680 (E406M), $1.0780 (E269M), $1.0850 (E1.2BLN)

GBP/USD: $1.4925 (Gbp506M)

EUR/GBP: Gbp0.7180 (E329M), Gbp0.7200 (E200M)

USD/CAD: C$1.2600 ($808M), C$1.2610 ($410M)

AUD/USD: $0.7600 (A$927M), $0.7700 (A$475M), $0.7750 (A$270M)

USD/JPY: Y120.50 ($302M), Y121.00-05 ($280M)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance March 10 9 0

11:00 Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the U.S. existing home sales figures. The existing home sales in the U.S. are expected to increase to 4.91 million units in February from 4.82 million units in January.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar ahead of a speech by the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. Draghi is scheduled to speak at 14:30 GMT.

Germany's Bundesbank released its monthly report on Monday. The central bank expects a strong growth of German economy in the first quarter of year. "There are also signs of a continued vigorous upward economic movement in the second quarter," Bundesbank added.

The British pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected CBI industrial order books balance data from the U.K. The CBI industrial order books balance dropped to zero in March from +10% in February.

Analysts expected the CBI industrial order books balance to decrease to +9%.

The decline was driven by a stronger pound and a weak economy in the Eurozone.

Volume of output for the next three months fell to +22 in March, down from +25 in February.

EUR/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.0906

GBP/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.4837

USD/JPY: the currency pair fell to Y119.70

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales February 4.82 4.91

14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales, m/m February -4.9%

14:30 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

16:20 U.S. FOMC Member Mester Speaks

EUR/USD

Offers 1.0800 1.0820-25 1.0855 1.0880 1.0900 1.0930

Bids 1.0760 1.0730 1.0700 1.0650 1.0625-30 1.0600

GBP/USD

Offers 1.4900 1.4920-25 1.49455-60 1.4970 1.5000 1.5035

Bids 1.4840 1.4825 1.4800 1.4780 1.4760 1.4720-25 1.4700

EUR/JPY

Offers 130.00 130.20 130.40 130.80 131.00

Bids 129.40 129.00 128.80 128.60 128.30 128.00

USD/JPY

Offers 120.20-25 120.50 120.80 121.00 121.30 121.50-55

Bids 119.75-80 119.50-55 119.30 119.00 118.80

EUR/GBP

Offers 0.7285 0.7300 0.7320 0.7335 0.7350

Bids 0.7250 0.7230-35 0.7220-25 0.7200 0.7185 0.7170

AUD/USD

Offers 0.7800 0.7820-25 0.7855-60 0.7885 0.7900

Bids 0.7750 0.7725 0.7700 0.7685 0.7660 0.7625-30 0.7600

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) released its industrial order books balance on Monday. The CBI industrial order books balance dropped to zero in March from +10% in February.

Analysts expected the CBI industrial order books balance to decrease to +9%.

The decline was driven by a stronger pound and a weak economy in the Eurozone.

The CBI's director for economics Rain Newton-Smith said that "sluggish export performance seems to be a headache that won't go away".

He noted that "measures in the budget to support exporters should be a welcome boost for the sector's longer-term prospects".

Volume of output for the next three months fell to +22 in March, down from +25 in February.

BLOOMBERG

Pound Emerging as Election Loser Whichever Party Seizes Victory

(Bloomberg) -- The likely outcome of Britain's general election is finally becoming clear. The outcome, that is, for the pound.

In a bearish sign for the currency, traders are paying more to hedge against sterling losses versus the dollar now than in the weeks before the Scottish independence referendum back in September. Opinion polls ahead of the May 7 vote put the Conservative and Labour parties virtually neck and neck and investors say there are dangers whichever one ends up running the government.

"All paths lead to a degree of sterling weakness," said Daragh Maher, a London-based strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc, which sees the pound falling more than 2 percent to $1.45 by year-end. "Traditionally the pound does better if the Conservatives are expected to win and does worse if Labour are set to win. That doesn't hold so closely this time around."

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-23/pound-emerging-as-election-loser-whichever-party-seizes-victory

REUTERS

Fed's Bullard says dollar near fair value but path unclear

The dollar index is not far from fair value but it is unclear how much more the U.S. currency will strengthen against the euro, St Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Monday.

Speaking on CNBC, Bullard also said an exit of Greece from the euro would be possible but prove very painful for Greece itself.

"I think it's (Grexit) much more manageable than it would have been a couple of years ago and so I do think it could be done but I don't think it's advisable to try to go down that path," he told CNBC in an interview.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/23/us-fed-bullard-idUSKBN0MJ0O920150323

REUTERS

Oil drops as Saudi says will not cut output alone, weak China import hurts

(Reuters) - Oil prices dropped more than 1.5 percent on Monday as China's imports weakened, while comments from top exporter Saudi Arabia that it would not unilaterally cut its output to defend prices also dragged on the crude market.

China's February crude oil imports from Iran fell 3.7 percent from a year ago to 2.04 million tonnes. China boosted overall imports late last year, taking advantage of cheap oil to build its reserves, but storage tanks could be reaching their limits, forcing a slowdown in orders.

Weak demand from top energy consumer China comes at a time when the OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has reiterated its decision to keep production unchanged and ride out a market slump, which has roughly halved prices since last June.

Source: http://www.reuters.com

The U.S. dollar is trading mixed against its major peers after ending the week lower against most currencies after the more dovish-than-expected FED statement. Investors will now closely watch Tuesday's data on U.S. inflation as FED Chair Janet Yellen warned, that a strong dollar will could keep inflation below target.

The euro is trading lower against the greenback after currently quoted at USD1.0815 after Friday's gains. The U.S. dollar set its worst weekly performance against the single currency last week amid expectations that U.S. rates will rise slower than expected. Today German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsirpas for the second time to discuss the matter of the Greek bailout.

AT 14:30 GMT ECB president Mario Draghi will hold a speech.

Both commodity currencies, the Australian dollar and New Zealand's dollar gained against the greenback during the Asian session in the absence of major data from the region.

The Japanese yen traded slightly higher against the greenback on Monday in a light data day. I a meeting Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that low oil prices are slowing inflation but that the long term trend of rising consumer prices is still intact as the economic growth is on track and that the economy is recovering.

EUR/USD: the euro traded lower against the greenback

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance March 10 9

11:00 Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report

14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales February 4.82 4.91

14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales, m/m February -4.9%

14:30 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Preliminary) March -7 -6

16:20 U.S. FOMC Member Mester Speaks

23:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index January +0.4%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1003 (2312)

$1.0941 (2250)

$1.0879 (1565)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0793

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0732 (1908)

$1.0677 (1398)

$1.0607 (2128)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 2 is 64162 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0900 (3657);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 2 is 70581 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0600 (6557);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.10 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 20

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5203 (1169)

$1.5106 (1638)

$1.5009 (1313)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4898

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4889 (1060)

$1.4793 (1372)

$1.4696 (1904)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 2 is 25658 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5100 (1638);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 2 is 28277 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5050 (2327);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.10 versus 1.08 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 20

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/JPY $1,0820 +1,52%

GBP/USD $ 1,4948 +1,30%

USD/CHF Chf0,975 -1,54%

USD/JPY Y120,02 -0,63%

EUR/JPY Y128,89 +0,14%

GBP/JPY Y179,51 +0,73%

AUD/USD $0,7773 +1,62%

NZD/USD $0,7564 +2,01%

USD/CAD C$1,2550 -1,28%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance March 10 9

11:00 Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report

14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales February 4.82 4.91

14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales, m/m February -4.9%

14:30 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Preliminary) March -7 -6

16:20 U.S. FOMC Member Mester Speaks

23:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index January +0.4%