Data Over First Half of Year Critical to Determining Fed Outlook

If Economy Plays out as Expected, Favors Move to Restrictive Policy

Good Outlook Would Favor Funds Rate of 3% to 3.25%

Economic Downside Risks Have Risen, but Upside Risks Still There

Expects Growth to Moderate to Just Above 2% This Year

Will Change Policy Outlook Depending on Economy's Performance

Sees Jobless Rate Down to Around 3.5% This Year

Expects Inflation to Go Just Over 2%, but That's OK

Symmetric Inflation Target Can Tolerate Inflation Overshoot